Yesterday’s analysis/position: Concerned about lack of follow through when we violated $7,274 support. Looking for reasons to exit my short positions. Breaking through $7,500 was a key price point for me, which we have done in the last two hours. The bulls had very little follow through themselves and it is starting to look like that was just a trap. Divergence in the OBV on the 1h and 4h is a strong indication that the big money traders have been selling over the past 5 days.
Patterns: Channel/bull flag. Testing bottom of triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: Weak S: $7,375 R: $7,550 Strong S: $6,800 R: $7,750
BTCUSDSHORTS: Found support at 20,000 but not increasing as of yet.
Funding Rates: longs pay shorts 0.01%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = +0.76% 26 = +1.18% bullish cross 1h - 1d
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = +11.75 128 = -1.51%
FIB’s: 0.236 = $5,789 0.382 = $8,448
Candlestick analysis: Daily = Hanging man, spinning top and shooting star at resistance 3D shooting star. Weekly bullish engulfing.
Ichimoku Cloud: Just entered into the daily cloud after it served as strong resistance. Hourly cloud is bullish and recently had a kumo breakout. 2h cloud just had a bearish TK' cross above a bullish cloud (indication to take profit if long). C clamp on 4h cloud indicates short term overbought conditions. Top of 12h cloud has been acting as resistance
TD’ Sequential: Green 7 on daily indicates that we could be in for 2 more days of bullishness. Green 1 on weekly indicate that this pump could last 2 more months.
Visible Range: $7,460 and $7,300 have largest volume profile in last 24 hours. $7,550 should not be very strong resistance. $7,320 - $7,475 has the largest volume profile over the past 5 days. $7,500 - $8,900 has the second largest volume profile over the past year. $3,850 - $4,550 has the largest (by a small margin). Gap from $4,550 - $5,000 is begging to get filled before this bear market is over.
BTC Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +1.49% 24h = +1.85% 1w = +18.42% 2w = +13.75% 1m = +24.16%
Bollinger Bands: First time we have had 2 daily candles close outside of the top band since 9/1/17 when the price proceeded to correct -38.46% in 13 days. MA on weekly band is apart of the resistance cluster. Still above MA on monthly. Last 1h candle closed outside of the top band. 1h bands tightening indicate that a move is coming.
Trendline: Third touch of bear trendline that connects March 5th to May 5th.
Daily Trend: Bullish. 1h chart is forming a solid trend
Fractals: Two up at $7,750. Down is at $6,081
On Balance Volume: Div’s in lower time frames indicate that the whales have been dumping.
Buy/Sell Sentiment on Trading View: Oscillators = neutral MA’s = Buy Summary = Buy (counter trade) RSI at overbought levels. Stoch is angling down after bearish cross.
Summary: Div' in OBV is very important to me and it is the main reason why I have regained my confidence in this position. Lack of follow through from bulls at $7,500 tells me that we could be heading down very soon. R:R on a short at $7,500 is very attractive.
Patterns: Channel/bull flag. Testing bottom of triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: Weak S: $7,375 R: $7,550 Strong S: $6,800 R: $7,750
BTCUSDSHORTS: Found support at 20,000 but not increasing as of yet.
Funding Rates: longs pay shorts 0.01%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = +0.76% 26 = +1.18% bullish cross 1h - 1d
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = +11.75 128 = -1.51%
FIB’s: 0.236 = $5,789 0.382 = $8,448
Candlestick analysis: Daily = Hanging man, spinning top and shooting star at resistance 3D shooting star. Weekly bullish engulfing.
Ichimoku Cloud: Just entered into the daily cloud after it served as strong resistance. Hourly cloud is bullish and recently had a kumo breakout. 2h cloud just had a bearish TK' cross above a bullish cloud (indication to take profit if long). C clamp on 4h cloud indicates short term overbought conditions. Top of 12h cloud has been acting as resistance
TD’ Sequential: Green 7 on daily indicates that we could be in for 2 more days of bullishness. Green 1 on weekly indicate that this pump could last 2 more months.
Visible Range: $7,460 and $7,300 have largest volume profile in last 24 hours. $7,550 should not be very strong resistance. $7,320 - $7,475 has the largest volume profile over the past 5 days. $7,500 - $8,900 has the second largest volume profile over the past year. $3,850 - $4,550 has the largest (by a small margin). Gap from $4,550 - $5,000 is begging to get filled before this bear market is over.
BTC Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +1.49% 24h = +1.85% 1w = +18.42% 2w = +13.75% 1m = +24.16%
Bollinger Bands: First time we have had 2 daily candles close outside of the top band since 9/1/17 when the price proceeded to correct -38.46% in 13 days. MA on weekly band is apart of the resistance cluster. Still above MA on monthly. Last 1h candle closed outside of the top band. 1h bands tightening indicate that a move is coming.
Trendline: Third touch of bear trendline that connects March 5th to May 5th.
Daily Trend: Bullish. 1h chart is forming a solid trend
Fractals: Two up at $7,750. Down is at $6,081
On Balance Volume: Div’s in lower time frames indicate that the whales have been dumping.
Buy/Sell Sentiment on Trading View: Oscillators = neutral MA’s = Buy Summary = Buy (counter trade) RSI at overbought levels. Stoch is angling down after bearish cross.
Summary: Div' in OBV is very important to me and it is the main reason why I have regained my confidence in this position. Lack of follow through from bulls at $7,500 tells me that we could be heading down very soon. R:R on a short at $7,500 is very attractive.
Comment:
Forgot to mention that the stop loss remains at $7,826
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