BITCOIN:BTCUSD
Hope you managed to get long at 2755 - it was a peach of a hit on support - I missed it. It was so damn perfect too. Damn
Der. Got so carried away with the oil complexes I took my eye off Bitcoin for an hour and so much has happened...
It's come back to make a perfect test of both fixed support and the lower parallel at PRECISELY the moment in time it
should have...where the two meet. Looking at it in amazement still. So beautiful. So fairly obviously it was a
calculated buy at that point with stops below the line at 2748ish - but for traders, it was also a sell again as it hit 2800
from underside.
So far, this is still a big, drawn-out continuation pattern...it's scaring out weak bulls with each down-wave - understandably
too as the pattern looks pretty scary, even for experienced traders. Day traders play inside the parallels and are
having some sport now whipping it from resistance at 2800 and near term support at 2770.
But something has to give sooner or later - and whilst the lower parallel holds that favors the bulls and not the bears. So
whilst it holds it's correct strategy for day traders to buy dips rather than selling rallies. But we need to cover both
eventualities and try to keep an open mind - no matter what we might think, it's the chart that will decide the ultimate
actions of thousands of traders all over the globe.
Upside Reward
Stll looks OK, though treacherous. Good to buy dips though - looks like a problem at 2832 awaits, especially if that happens
around 1pm Eastern where two lines meet. Need Bitcoin to break above the parallel there to show it's still got got some
life left in it at that point, enough momentum to break the upper parallel again above 2835 and hold...then we should get
a re-test of the highs. Expect another stumble probably but stll believe there is a very good chance it will get beaten soon now.
If you were around to buy at 2750-2760 you'll likely be selling at the highs and waiting to see if there's a red or green candle next.
Whatever, continuation should be ending soon and a new set of Bitcoin owners have changed hands in the processs. Weaker bulls and bears have
been replaced by stronger bulls. That's what happens during continuation. So far, so good.
Once the high is beaten by 10 points or more it should go on to rally strongly again - look to increase longs with stops left well under the (by then old) highs
Downside Risk
If, wrong and the lower parallel gives way this is no longer continuation - it's a top pattern - big and scary. Get short
immediately with stops above 2760. It should plunge in minutes to 2694-2684 range (buy back) and then bounce hard
right back up to 2750-2760 range again and could even get to 2777 high before falling away again, hard to 2694-2684 range
again. Sell rallies. If we see this price action develop at any point watch it closely on the second re-test of this
range...don't expect it to hold for very long. Once it goes we have a top in place, a big one - sell all rallies back up to old
support/new resistance lines shown on chart.
Hope you managed to get long at 2755 - it was a peach of a hit on support - I missed it. It was so damn perfect too. Damn
Der. Got so carried away with the oil complexes I took my eye off Bitcoin for an hour and so much has happened...
It's come back to make a perfect test of both fixed support and the lower parallel at PRECISELY the moment in time it
should have...where the two meet. Looking at it in amazement still. So beautiful. So fairly obviously it was a
calculated buy at that point with stops below the line at 2748ish - but for traders, it was also a sell again as it hit 2800
from underside.
So far, this is still a big, drawn-out continuation pattern...it's scaring out weak bulls with each down-wave - understandably
too as the pattern looks pretty scary, even for experienced traders. Day traders play inside the parallels and are
having some sport now whipping it from resistance at 2800 and near term support at 2770.
But something has to give sooner or later - and whilst the lower parallel holds that favors the bulls and not the bears. So
whilst it holds it's correct strategy for day traders to buy dips rather than selling rallies. But we need to cover both
eventualities and try to keep an open mind - no matter what we might think, it's the chart that will decide the ultimate
actions of thousands of traders all over the globe.
Upside Reward
Stll looks OK, though treacherous. Good to buy dips though - looks like a problem at 2832 awaits, especially if that happens
around 1pm Eastern where two lines meet. Need Bitcoin to break above the parallel there to show it's still got got some
life left in it at that point, enough momentum to break the upper parallel again above 2835 and hold...then we should get
a re-test of the highs. Expect another stumble probably but stll believe there is a very good chance it will get beaten soon now.
If you were around to buy at 2750-2760 you'll likely be selling at the highs and waiting to see if there's a red or green candle next.
Whatever, continuation should be ending soon and a new set of Bitcoin owners have changed hands in the processs. Weaker bulls and bears have
been replaced by stronger bulls. That's what happens during continuation. So far, so good.
Once the high is beaten by 10 points or more it should go on to rally strongly again - look to increase longs with stops left well under the (by then old) highs
Downside Risk
If, wrong and the lower parallel gives way this is no longer continuation - it's a top pattern - big and scary. Get short
immediately with stops above 2760. It should plunge in minutes to 2694-2684 range (buy back) and then bounce hard
right back up to 2750-2760 range again and could even get to 2777 high before falling away again, hard to 2694-2684 range
again. Sell rallies. If we see this price action develop at any point watch it closely on the second re-test of this
range...don't expect it to hold for very long. Once it goes we have a top in place, a big one - sell all rallies back up to old
support/new resistance lines shown on chart.