abstrusegoose
Long

Failure to launch above 680 due to premature bullish runs

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
75 0 5
Bulls are going to be bulls in a bull market, but the market is still momma's house, and you have to play by momma's rules. When bulls get too ahead of themselves, the market gets unhappy, and problems ensue.

One pattern that shows up here: squeeze, breakthrough, consolidation (rinse), repeat. As long as everyone has had enough time to consolidate, and for the Bollinger Bands/CoG channel to squeeze in, bulls are happy when it breaks upwards, people are comfortable, no giant retraces are necessary. Thus we see more moderate retraces after the first and second arrows, getting as low as about the 0.5 fib line after the first arrow (not shown), but certainly not threatening to fall below the start of the run-up.

Contrast this to the briefer "consolidation" after the second arrow - BBs are thick and definitively *not* inside the CoG channel, which itself never had an opportunity to narrow before bulls got excited for another runup. Although there are really two smaller movements, the time between them is less than a day, and the analysis of the larger movement holds the same for each of the smaller ones. The end result isn't pretty - tweezer tops, and a fat red candle with a shadow extending even lower than the start of the movement. Pretty decent volatility along the bottom followed, with modest narrowing of the BBs and CoG, although the squeeze-basis for another runup had not been established before another attempt at 680 was made, with predictably disappointing results for the excited bulls. Scarcely four hours passed before another half-hearted attempt was made, visible as the long upper wick on the third candle into the channel.

With that out of the way, what's in the future? Well, we are still in a fundamentally bull market. RSI has yet to dip beneath 40, which is a great confirmation of an uptrend. This suggests that there might be some false starts, and perhaps dips beneath the last wedge that I've drawn, but after enough time to recharge we'll have another swing up. Personally, I am long from 665, and giving the market a few days to make up its mind.

To acknowledge that there is always a bearish possibility, I also highlighted a bearish RSI divergence that shows up on this time scale. In that case, a more serious retrace would probably run up against the support from more recent run ups, before either continuing or reversing. That being said, we're still firmly in a bull trend - the more likely scenario is consolidation before further upwards action, at least to this goose.

~Take home message~ - Upward spikes are more likely to hold if they're coming out of longish consolidation, as indicated by channel squeezes. Bulls have recently tracked their muddy hooves all around momma's house by getting ahead of themselves, so the last two spikes have been duds. Future upwards action would ideally include more breathing room, to ensure that market participants are comfortable at the relevant prices.


A major thank you goes to LazyBear, for the fantastic set of indicators in general, and the immensely useful Center of Gravity channel in particular!
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