Cautiously optimistic

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
We can see an interesting confluence of events on this chart.

1. The 3d 50MA has been a classic resistance for the last 9 months. We burst through it and subsequent candle bodies have remained above it.

2. The 200EMA has also acted as a strong resistance, and we bounced of it on the initial spike above the 50MA selling off on the R2 which is the expected take profit zone.

3. Bollinger bands snapped just before the 50MA resistance break.

4. Clear evidence of accumulation as shown by the VWAP POC .

5. Twittersphere and mainstream media are buzzing with correlations of the Greece meltdown and Cyprus on bitcoin . While I don't personally pay any attention to this (since the Greeks are clearly not buying BTC , not able to transfer funds out of Greece, and clearly believed the government would reach a deal and thus failed to withdraw significant cash until it was too late). I think it's reasonable to assume BTC retail traders will gamble on a correlation. However there is cause to worry when retail's expectations don't match reality.

6. There was a strong reaction defending $220 on the sell-off from $245 suggesting bigger players defending their positions. There were clear shenanigans and "Organic Growth( tm )". Technically we rejected breaking the monthly S1 and it signalled a bullish orderblock and has since consolidated into a bullish flag .

It's clearly too early to call the start of any bubbles, or even mini bubbles, but if it was going to happen, this would definitely be a good technical start. Of course one can speculate (i.e. guess), but looking at the bigger picture the trend is still bearish and price is still quite compressed trading within a $30 range and equally sideways could continue. Breaking above the 200EMA is very likely to spark stronger buying and would be a much stronger bullish signal than any "random diagonal bearish trend line" breaks. There's definitely pretty good risk/reward ratio for long positions *with tight stops*. On the other hand, failing to make a significant break up after such a gallant effort is will weaken the bullish case significantly.

Personally "allin" bitcoins from the $240s for the first time in a looong time but I wont hesitate to take profits, fiat is still king in my book.


I'm always amazed that the 50 period and 200 period moving averages play any role at all since they are completely arbitrary and make no sense at all in terms of any Bitcoin cycle. Even more so on a 3 day chart. Interesting to see traders actually follow these imaginary lines.
+1 Reply
ChartArt ChartArt
I fully agree and this is what keeps me from being too hyped up so far:

"The Greeks are clearly not buying BTC, not able to transfer funds out of Greece (...)"

"Failing to make a significant break up after such a gallant effort will weaken the bullish case significantly. "

Here is my worst case scenario in case Bitcoin does not pump enough with the Grekt news. I don't think it will happen, but it could happen:
btcdrak ChartArt
Yeah I agree in principal, but I've been watching how bitcoin behaved on the 3d historically against these MAs and also how it interacts with the R2 monthly pivots and it seems to correlate quite nicely. I am assuming some markets have unique features.
I completely agree
in a crowd of mooners u are the only sane person who sees things in a sensible way. i'm totally with you on being cautious. i see 2 suspects behind the pump: its either okcoin driving market with imaginary fiat ala mtgox all over or some heavy weight elite bagholders, investors in bitcoin decided to save their rotting investments. anyway selling when everyone was buying and buying when everyone was selling worked wonders so far.
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