Short stop 230... after that it may be free fall.
there is no fundamental.. Only hope... and hope is the worst thing for an asset...
Random people who I had never heard before of them getting involved in trading, are now talking how they are geniuses in the stock market and ask them what they trade, and they tell me "bitcoin, the new revolutionary thing". Just watch some users here in TradingView, all they have is "BTC/USD" on their ideas.
I know bitcoin since 2012, and it seemed good, with potential, the price I always thought it was kinda undervalued but not for going over 1000 in just a couple of months.
When I saw the big spike, I literally watched it almost all.
And what I saw?
Just a bunch of big boys with big pockets(not necessarily enthusiasts of bitcoin) + those who rode them to a very high price, before selling it all and become rich. And of course, the month it lasted to rally, the same month it lasted to sell it off by around 2/3 of the price. Typical ponzi scheme. I remember the people were so enthusiastic, many said it was going to 2000 and that 1000 was cheap, and you would regret for not buying.
However, I DON'T see bitcoin as a ponzi scheme. I just remark the price action, who people with big pockets took advantage of the perfect "revolutionary story" to make money.
At the end, it's the big boys mostly who move the money with this and have the power to make a significant move enough for the market to psychologically take an impulse.
I don't see bitcoin dead, it's in fact, a very revolutionary protocol to put our money safe, it won't die. I just don't see it realistically reflected on a price line, it's unstable, and it needs to consolidate to a safer price.
Is it going to get over 1000 again?
I don't know. It can or it cannot. I see the price based on pure psychological decisions caused by some triggered support and resistance lines on a logarithmic perspective. I won't speculate based on fundamentals of the revolutionary new currency, just confirm it with patterns and price action that is affected by the psychological decisions of people.
But I do have a question. Are people really that enthusiastic again for another move to 1000 once big boys decide to bet for it on a bullish support bounce? It's like successful series movies, the first of the series is usually the best, but they don't get the same "joy" the next ones. But you know, in bitcoin, big investors might see the resistance line of 1000 very tempting to try to take more juice.
Just my thoughts. Don't take it personal, and as always, keep it safe.
Whether it is bitcoin of gold or cashew nuts, then you need to understand the psychology of the market and try to understand what people are doing.
This chat told me one thing: I dont see new buyers.. I see people already long who are hoping and supporting their market.
The risk is: beyond the pivot, if the price accelerate down, many of those may liquidate.
That is all well beyond the true benefit or not of Bitcoin... Just price dynamics and psychology.
Let s say you were an aware visionary person in 2012 and invested 5,000 usd in bitcoin in case...
At the top you had: 2,500,000 USD.. not bad
Now you have 750,000 usd... it still feels good... at 500,000 you may say... ok hold on: let me get that out
If it is a bubble, that is how it ends.
Here is the original explanation of Bitcoin when it was released in 2009. Please take the 5 minutes to read at least that:
Bitcoin has a viral growth part build in by getting more scarce over the next decades in order to increase in value in order to increase adoption. That's another factor which might look like a scam to average people who didn't do any research, but it's only a clever way to make sure that a open source decentralized technology is being maintained over a very long time.
Here is an excerpt:
"I've developed a new open source P2P e-cash system called Bitcoin. (...) The result is a distributed system with no single point of failure." (...) "it's more typical of a precious metal. Instead of the supply changing to keep the value the same, the supply is predetermined and the value changes. As the number of users grows, the value per coin increases. It has the potential for a positive feedback loop; as users increase, the value goes up, which could attract more users to take advantage of the increasing value."
My most bearish scenarios only go down to $85-$100:
Even if it would take years I don't see Bitcoin going down to $13.98
Bitcoin is fundamentally not a scam. If you would write that the Apple stock is a scam, you would get a similar negative reaction from people who spend a lot of time understanding Apple. I published a chart two months ago that says that Bitcoin could go down to $85 but I didn't got any hate comments. Why? Because I didn't blindly dismiss Bitcoin as a scam.
If Bitcoin cant be explain in 4 bullet points that I could understand with simple words... I am not sure what is its benefit.
So please: in 4 bullet simple points. Tell me:
1 - What is the benefit of this new currency?
2 - By what assets is it backed?
3 - Who delivers the currency (we have enough issues with govt printing money) and makes more coins available?
4 - Why should it be so speculative in fluctuations and attract so much greed?