Short stop 230... after that it may be free fall.
there is no fundamental.. Only hope... and hope is the worst thing for an asset...
Random people who I had never heard before of them getting involved in trading, are now talking how they are geniuses in the stock market and ask them what they trade, and they tell me "bitcoin, the new revolutionary thing". Just watch some users here in TradingView, all they have is "BTC/USD" on their ideas.
I know bitcoin since 2012, and it seemed good, with potential, the price I always thought it was kinda undervalued but not for going over 1000 in just a couple of months.
When I saw the big spike, I literally watched it almost all.
And what I saw?
Just a bunch of big boys with big pockets(not necessarily enthusiasts of bitcoin) + those who rode them to a very high price, before selling it all and become rich. And of course, the month it lasted to rally, the same month it lasted to sell it off by around 2/3 of the price. Typical ponzi scheme. I remember the people were so enthusiastic, many said it was going to 2000 and that 1000 was cheap, and you would regret for not buying.
However, I DON'T see bitcoin as a ponzi scheme. I just remark the price action, who people with big pockets took advantage of the perfect "revolutionary story" to make money.
At the end, it's the big boys mostly who move the money with this and have the power to make a significant move enough for the market to psychologically take an impulse.
I don't see bitcoin dead, it's in fact, a very revolutionary protocol to put our money safe, it won't die. I just don't see it realistically reflected on a price line, it's unstable, and it needs to consolidate to a safer price.
Is it going to get over 1000 again?
I don't know. It can or it cannot. I see the price based on pure psychological decisions caused by some triggered support and resistance lines on a logarithmic perspective. I won't speculate based on fundamentals of the revolutionary new currency, just confirm it with patterns and price action that is affected by the psychological decisions of people.
But I do have a question. Are people really that enthusiastic again for another move to 1000 once big boys decide to bet for it on a bullish support bounce? It's like successful series movies, the first of the series is usually the best, but they don't get the same "joy" the next ones. But you know, in bitcoin, big investors might see the resistance line of 1000 very tempting to try to take more juice.
Just my thoughts. Don't take it personal, and as always, keep it safe.
So far the price is supported.
I expressed a conditional scenario (condition being bitcoin trading below 230).
What I think about it is irrelevant.
I wish all the people who invested in bitcoin a lot of success.
As per me: not long, not short... There are enough instruments out there to play with.
Intellectually: i would be surprised if it crashes... I would be amazed if it marks new highs.. Geniunly.
Let's leave it there and let the price tell us.
Good luck either way.