Okay, guys, so you’ve looked at all the charts, all the TA. And you’ve tuned into all the gossip and news, all the FA. But do you know the PA? The Psychological Analysis?
In this brief article I want to draw on my years of experience as a therapist to lay out some of the emerging psychological dynamics and then predict Bitcoin and Crypto movements in 2018.
Let’s look at the players here, and sorry if you don’t like being stereotyped!
2009 to 2013 - Mr Computer tech enthusiast
2012 to date - Mr Positive-thinking, Change-the-World Authority Tripper
2017 to date - Mr Ponzi, the scammer - I smell blood in the water!
Dec 2017 to date - Mr Wall Street Whale - I wanna short and long these guys till they’re milked dry
Let’s look deeper at Mr Positive-thinking Authority Tripper, for he’s a key character. What this guy brought into the crypto space was concepts like FUD and Hodling. The underlying belief system is that if everyone just keeps thinking positively and holding their coins, then we are all going to make money and change the world. Trouble is, the mind ain’t configured to always think positively. As you try to reinforce so-called positive thinking, so you also empower the negative to dominate in the background. And this tends to take form and manifest, ergo…
...Mr Ponzi. He can’t believe these guys are so utterly naive as to believe what they believe, and he’s going to take them for every satoshi he can, all dressed up like he’s on their side and trying to change the world, of course (see Davor, Bitconnect, FineCoin, LendConnect)…
&
...Mr Wall Street Whale. The market’s got big now and he wants to milk it for all its worth. Now that there are futures options on the CME, he’s got his lever. He’s not like Mr Ponzi, he doesn’t just want to take all the money in one hit. He wants to milk the market, driving it up and down in sequential bursts, so that people keep putting money in and losing it.
And that to me is the fundamental psychological dynamic that we will see being played out for at least most of the rest of 2018.
As the crypto market is driven repeatedly up and down by Mr Wall Street Whale, so slowly bit-by-bit, Mr Positive-thinking Authority-tripper will find his underlying insecurities rammed in his face. He’s been trying to change the world rather than face his own shit, and now his faith is being tested beyond its limits and he has to confront the underlying feelings he’s been avoiding.
So, we’re going to be going up and down for a while now. And as long as people keep putting new money in it will continue. Each seeming bull-run will be pulled back hard, but in a way that keeps people believing as much as possible that BTC really does have a future. And maybe it really does. But it’s going to take a lot of growing up on behalf of the guys that believe that authority is wrong.
In this brief article I want to draw on my years of experience as a therapist to lay out some of the emerging psychological dynamics and then predict Bitcoin and Crypto movements in 2018.
Let’s look at the players here, and sorry if you don’t like being stereotyped!
2009 to 2013 - Mr Computer tech enthusiast
2012 to date - Mr Positive-thinking, Change-the-World Authority Tripper
2017 to date - Mr Ponzi, the scammer - I smell blood in the water!
Dec 2017 to date - Mr Wall Street Whale - I wanna short and long these guys till they’re milked dry
Let’s look deeper at Mr Positive-thinking Authority Tripper, for he’s a key character. What this guy brought into the crypto space was concepts like FUD and Hodling. The underlying belief system is that if everyone just keeps thinking positively and holding their coins, then we are all going to make money and change the world. Trouble is, the mind ain’t configured to always think positively. As you try to reinforce so-called positive thinking, so you also empower the negative to dominate in the background. And this tends to take form and manifest, ergo…
...Mr Ponzi. He can’t believe these guys are so utterly naive as to believe what they believe, and he’s going to take them for every satoshi he can, all dressed up like he’s on their side and trying to change the world, of course (see Davor, Bitconnect, FineCoin, LendConnect)…
&
...Mr Wall Street Whale. The market’s got big now and he wants to milk it for all its worth. Now that there are futures options on the CME, he’s got his lever. He’s not like Mr Ponzi, he doesn’t just want to take all the money in one hit. He wants to milk the market, driving it up and down in sequential bursts, so that people keep putting money in and losing it.
And that to me is the fundamental psychological dynamic that we will see being played out for at least most of the rest of 2018.
As the crypto market is driven repeatedly up and down by Mr Wall Street Whale, so slowly bit-by-bit, Mr Positive-thinking Authority-tripper will find his underlying insecurities rammed in his face. He’s been trying to change the world rather than face his own shit, and now his faith is being tested beyond its limits and he has to confront the underlying feelings he’s been avoiding.
So, we’re going to be going up and down for a while now. And as long as people keep putting new money in it will continue. Each seeming bull-run will be pulled back hard, but in a way that keeps people believing as much as possible that BTC really does have a future. And maybe it really does. But it’s going to take a lot of growing up on behalf of the guys that believe that authority is wrong.
Comment:
Something to really watch out for, if BTCUSD continues to be unstable, is the "ego resilience level" of Mr Positive Thinker. As the whales continue to manipulate the market up and down, so increasingly Mr Positive Thinker will start to think the unthinkable - stop hodling and sell. These things to tend happen in rushes, as all traders know, so we could well see a complete collapse of BTCUSD around late March or April by my estimation. It could fall to below $1k in a sudden rush of panic selling even the manipulating whales won't be able to stem, though it threatens their long-term plans.