Building the case for bullish breakout on BTCUSD
Hey guys, thanks for taking the time to read this analysis.
I know it has been awhile since my last Bitcoin update and that’s because the past couple months of tight consolidation has made this asset very difficult to trade and I do not like to gamble on guessing where the price will go.
However, I am now starting to see some underlying signs emerging on higher time frames that might be providing some clues of what to expect.
I provided most of my notes and observations on the chart, and I point out all the things that are helping to build a case for a bullish breakout in the upcoming weeks.
Some of the main takeaways from this chart:
Overall, I believe we are seeing accumulation and the indicators support this idea. That doesn't mean we can't see another drop soon, but I will be keeping my eye on the 89EMA and long term log trend line for areas of support if this happens. As I've mentioned above, I am looking at a breakout of the blue trend line to initiate a buy. It is also possible we just continue to move sideways until price hits the log trend line, and then make some upwards movement so it's important to be aware of all potential scenarios.
Thanks for reading this analysis and if you found this useful please give it a thumbs up!
I know it has been awhile since my last Bitcoin update and that’s because the past couple months of tight consolidation has made this asset very difficult to trade and I do not like to gamble on guessing where the price will go.
However, I am now starting to see some underlying signs emerging on higher time frames that might be providing some clues of what to expect.
I provided most of my notes and observations on the chart, and I point out all the things that are helping to build a case for a bullish breakout in the upcoming weeks.
Some of the main takeaways from this chart:
- 89EMA: This moving average has held the price up since June and has formed a very reliable support line. Keep an eye on this if price starts to drop again.
- Log support trend line: If the 89EMA is broken, the strongest support will be at this log trend line that has been keeping the price above this line from 2011 onwards.
- Blue trend line: This has been a very strong resistance point since February and as you can see on the chart the price is getting very narrowly wedged between this line and the 89 EMA. A breakout above this line will be my signal to buy.
- Indicators: The details are on the chart, but overall we are seeing these indicators making higher lows while price is making lower highs. To see this occurring on the weekly time frame is a strong sign of accumulation.
Overall, I believe we are seeing accumulation and the indicators support this idea. That doesn't mean we can't see another drop soon, but I will be keeping my eye on the 89EMA and long term log trend line for areas of support if this happens. As I've mentioned above, I am looking at a breakout of the blue trend line to initiate a buy. It is also possible we just continue to move sideways until price hits the log trend line, and then make some upwards movement so it's important to be aware of all potential scenarios.
Thanks for reading this analysis and if you found this useful please give it a thumbs up!
Order cancelled:
As all of you are well aware by now, we did not get the bullish breakout that the indicators were pointing towards. There just wasn't enough strength from the bulls to push it past that descending trend line which would have given me a signal to buy. Instead it broke the 89 EMA, and broke the log trendline from 2011. Now I realize that log trend line has been drawn on the Bitstamp chart and I'm not sure how accurate it is. I drew a similar trend line on BLX chart and the price hasn't fallen below this line yet. We also bounced off a very important fib level. I will review all this things on my new idea, which will be published soon!