Acel

BTC/USD - Is Black Friday over?

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
So Black Friday sales appear to be over. But is there gonna be a Cyber Monday?
I personnally believe that thats quite likely! I want to see how Bitcoin             will move in the next 50 hours in order to confirm its new bull run.

I tried to keep the chart as clean as possible this time. On your left you can see some fib levels. They have the same starting point but 2 different points as fib 1 level, so dont get confused. Why dont u see all fib levels? I removed the majority of the retracements and kept the ones that have a bigger impact. Each level left is a short term resistance and it will turn into a potential support once its hits the next fib resistance.

Some thinks you should keep in mind:
  • Slow stoch is MADLY bullish , but that doesnt mean that we wont see another dip - hopefully no lower than the red lines.
  • Historically, after a correction like this, RSI tops between 42-52 before we see the first red candle appear.
  • EMA 50 and 200 are also short term resistances. Historically, when it breaks through them with brute force is the perfect sign of a good uptrend starting.

A few numbers to keep in mind for the next hours:
  • 9.5k - 10k => its the area of WMA200 on 1D and WMA365 on 12H, possible last chance to get it on discount
  • 11.5k => first short term test, it needs to go through and hold it as support line
  • 13k => here is the real test, it used to be the support for the past month, now its a huge resistance
Comment: Traders beware!
This is failing to go past the EMA25 for a 3rd time. As well as the November's trend line, the one that triggered the panic selling few hours ago ( its not in the chart but you can see it on my previous post).
That might be because the Slow Stoch gave a sell signal on 1H bars, but that may be enough to trigger another round of panic selling.
The market is quite vulnurable right now. I will have a close look on this for the next 2-3 hours and post another update.
Comment:
Comment: Nothing clear yet about its movement. Just a closer look on the 30 min bars.
Comment: Price is continuously denied to go above the thin lines, check wick lengths compared to candle main body on that price level. Maybe the triangle will break down.
Comment: Alright guys, this is what a think for now. I havent put much effort to see for the possible alternatives cause lack of time. There is also apossibility to peak around 14.4k but i think it has much less chances.
Comment: Hey guys! Im still following Bitcoin closely but i will spent most of my time today in searching for other coins since things pretty much moving hozisontally. I will update it once i see something interesting again, in the mean time in case you have missed this interesting idea on trendings, i think you should have a look.
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Comment: If my point of view is correct the orange Elliot waves will complete the wave 5 (and final wave ) of wave C, which will end the ABC correction after the ATH of 20k. Time axis is random, just an approximation of the move.
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Comment: Wave 2 is half way there. Point C is a potential last high ( around 11.8k ) which will confirm the begining of Wave 3 and a H&S .

Comment: Point C reached after a few hours and 100$ lower, the H&S is much more visible now and also almost confirmed on the VFI. Potential target of Wave 3 is around 10.2k just above of the WMA200 on Daily chart.
Comment: It seems like the $ 11.8k ( initial point C mark ) was reach after all! BUT there is a decline for higher prices...
Hold tight this will be painful to watch!
Comment: Its trying to consolidate above 10.5k , dont fall for it ! Soon the 3rd subwave of wave 3 will start. This will be more painful than what just happened!

I will try to give a last update within this hour, hopefully i will give another one while its approaching the last dip, but dont quote me on that...

ETA for panic selling round 3 : less than 3hours
Comment: Dont swim against the current!!

Hopefully i will update again while its around the end of Wave 3 or 4.
Comment: This wave should be ending soon, Wave 3 has a potential target of 9k.
Comment: Quick update! I have replied on one of the comments below of what i think it happened.
Comment: DO NOT ENTER FOR LONG NOW !! Its too risky!

I saw goldbug1 did but i think its the HUGE wrong move. I want to see it stabilize above 12.1k to consider a long entry.
Comment: There is a nice bull flag forming. BUT!!! DONT FALL FOR IT!!

5% profit at best is not worth the risk! There is a surprise after the next turn waiting for you...
Comment: Quick update: I made a mistake in the retracements ( one of the points was wrong).
Either way... my idea is still the same, i just corrected the numbers.
Comment: Oh forgot to mention that this was NOY advice to enter a trade, the potential max profit is 4%
Comment: DONT fall for it, yes its breaking out, but the volume is not sufficient - below average!
The bears are hidding...
Comment: There is way too much resistance on 11.7k. Potential last peak before the last wave. Beware!
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Comment: Breaking the point C line will invalidate the wave and most likely confirm a reversal.
Comment: Most likely, i wont be able to provide frequent updates today in the next few hours. So here is my recommended buy zone as of now. I will try to make it more precise as Elliot Waves start forming.
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Comment: Nothing new yet, just fixing the numbers and the sub waves count.
I guess we will all find out in 12hours from now how this will end. Sub-wave 3 has a potential drop around the WMA365 on 12H bars ( 11350 ). It may cause panic selling and go lower, but i doubt it. I expect the panic selling to happen at the finale.
Comment:
Comment: Traders, beware!
This wave has touched the fib line and it may move even lower for this wave to complete. Currently buyers on GDAX are trying to hold the line at around 10.3k.
Comment:
Comment: It reached 0.328 retracement, next stop 9.5k
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Comment: Alright, i have been watching gdax the past 30 mins, for some reason it went too high and invalidated the previous wave. BUT the buy amounts at the order book where pretty small.

Now, this is even a reversal OR a little bait. So enter at your own risk if you believe that its a reversal.
Comment: I would like to apologize for the misleading info. It appears that there are some rare occasions that the B or 4th corrective wave is in Elliot triangle pattern. I saw Grega's post from EWF and he has the correct pattern.
An approximation of the bottom is 8k, so its still within the zone that i provided above. I will run the numbers again to get something more approximate as time goes by. In the mean while you can check his post.
Comment:
Comment: Nothing new yet as i replied below. But i would like to let you know that coinmarketcap included KRW prices to their averages again without an announcement. Thats why you see green everywhere today.
Last time they removed them a panic selling started. Will this time be the complete opposite ? Only time will tell...
Comment: Ok, quick update on this. It looks okayish on the short term, still moving sideways. And as every time it does that its a good moment to find some opportunities on the alts for some quick profits! And there were a lot those days. XRP ICX NEO are just a few examples how i had an eye on.
Im a big fan of volume and momentum indicators. VFI is one of my favorites and i use it with different settings. The VFI below is more of a short term one and as you can see it follows the movement. BUT! The one above is for longer trends. There is a small DIV but not that serious, and as you can see its trying to go above the average. BB is squeezing in so we will soon see a movement. Either up or down. Market cap seems to be increasing slowly and steady. IDK if thats related to the site adding KRW prices again so dont quote me on that.
Comment: Almost touched the line, i think we might see some sideways action or a max raise of 4% (peaking at 11.4k ) the next hours.
Comment: This update is not related to Bitcoin, well, maybe it is indirectly. I had a flashback about Vera's post with Bitcoin and Gold and i though i could take a look at gold today. Im not an experienced trader ( yet! :) ) but i would like to point out some simple staff i see on gold's chart.
Comment: Finally we see some action! It broke the triangle down, but as of now there is support at 10.3-10.4k . I want to see how buyers will react so we can get some numbers soon(TM).
Comment: As of now, I expect a drop to 9.9k but we need more data to be sure.
Comment: It seems like the buyers are not strong enough to make a retracement. Next stop within the box.
Comment: Gotcha! Bitcoin was caught right in the box! Lets see how much its gonna retrace so we can find our next dip.
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Comment: I would expect some sideways action for the next few hours, but this is not over yet, just taking a rest. Some news will pop out of "nowhere" again.
GDAX has a maintenance in about 30 hours from now, so be alert in case something pops out during that period.

Also, big thank you for the 1k views !
Comment: This is getting over extended on the 1H bars. You might want to consider exiting if you went in for a quick trade.
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Comment: I think this might need to get a little lower before some minor consolidation, its still flirting with EMA365 on 12H.
Comment: Looking good, for now...
Comment: We are ALMOST there! Just a little lower and i believe it will turn around.
Comment: Its slowly happening, if you arent long yet, wait for a pullback. Patience is the key.
Comment: We mgiht see a pullback between 8500-8600
Trade active: Pullback at around 8350
Comment: Next resistances are at 9.1k and 10k. We have to see how its gonna bypass those for our next targets.
Comment: Watch out for a potential pullback on 8k, there is a chance we didnt bottom yet.
Comment: Approaching first resistance at 9.1k and its slowly running out of energy. We might see some retracement here
Comment: Alright, price is squeezed inside the triangle and volume is getting lower. Market favors the bears but lets see if bulls had enough rest to fight back. This hour will be decisive.
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Comment: Bulls are trying to get through the resistance once more. i think that this attempt will fail aswell. Or have a fake breakout and they will retrace back down. Hopefully they will try once more and succeed. RSI and stochs have to recover a little for another attempt.
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Comment: Alright, so it seems that it was a false breakout ( minor volume increase ). But i think its good for short term.
It helps on a better retracement ( higher lows ) and creates a convergence on RSI and Stochs.
Comment: I must admit that the volume was pretty good and pushed it more than i expected initially.
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Comment: The cloud on 2H bars points exactly on that target as last resistance. It has to penetrate it for an uptrend confirmation. I dont see that happening within the next 24 hours...
Comment: Bitcoin seems weak but i think it can go a little higher... Target 2 lowered to slightly below 9500.
Comment: Alright Bitcoin! Its time to bounce! if price falls bellow 8115.5 we are going down!
Comment: What FUD is causing the panic sell this time? Is it the J.P. Morgan thingy? Does anyone know?
Comment: Sell as much as you want people, the algorithms dont care. They will adjust their
buy orders and buy it lower than expected initially and then they will sell it higher while they have conviced you its a "reversal".

This WILL reverse. Its not the time to make a lower low, not yet.
Comment: Give this about an hour. They will make you have second thoughs of jumping back in.
Comment: Sneak peak on why we are being played by algorithms. They got their confirmation.
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Comment: Watch it breaking through the minor 8.5k resistance like its nothing. Next real resistance on the 9k-9.1k area.
Comment: Interesting sell wall at 8320 on GDAX, lets see if that bluff would be enough to make more people sell.
Comment: Dont expect me to call the bottom, im already in since 8.3k. All i will say is, dont expect the big discount your were promised by some popular analyst. Make your own decisions, time is running out.
Comment: Oh! and that 8.3k wall moved a little lower to 8135. Tick tock. :)
Comment: Almost there!
Comment: Last update! Good Luck traders.
Comment:
Trade active: trade still active , target raised to 10k
Comment: Ok ok... I lied! One last update!

Sell wall moved lower to 8035. Last bluff! Tick tock!
Comment: WERE IS YOUR WALL NOW??
Comment: Your market makers had all this planned since the beginning. Im pretty sure the FUD comming out at the right time was a "coincidence" . One more China "ban" appeared ealrier today to drive the price lower. What number is that ? Does anyone keep count of all this nonsence?

Im pretty sure all those famous analysts celebrities that you see on media are "too good" and "too experienced". Think again!

I will give you a hint! I see a "convergence" between them and the FUD appearing at the right time. Bring the last FUD, the bulls are warming up.
Comment: Very interesting that the shorts being almost half as many as the longs can predict when the price is moving ( in Divergence). Someone could say that some people know the bottom and take advantage of this for even more profits.
But i would never think of something like that...
Comment: It's on a critical point at gdax. Last supports holding and pretty good volume
Comment: If massive volume doesn't come in we might see a bounce and test a little lower.
Comment: We might see a bounce here
Comment: Approaching critical fib level for wave C. around 6666k on GDAX. This s the theoritical MAX. (1.618)
Comment: I would like to correct the level above. Its not the theoritical MAX, is 1.236 fib level. So it can get even lower. Theoritically.

I was working on a chart of whole Bitcoin's history since the beginning. Its not ready yet and idk if i will ever make it public. But i would like to share a screenshot of it for now. The area it landed today was no random at all. VPVR support (not shown on the pic) , 1.236 of wave c and a 5.618 from one of my fib levels. Save this picture just in case, it may be useful if Bitcoin doesnt make a new ATH within the next months.
Comment: Keep an eye on the shorts. Its the market maker's playground.
Comment: Longs are constantly growing but that doesnt matter because this is were the crowd is.
Those that make the rules play in the shorts.
Comment: Currently working on another idea, Bitcoin looks bullish for now but there is heavy resistance at 7.8k area.
Also landed on the 0.786 fib :) Good eye with this chart
Reply
Be careful trading against the trend. This isn't the bottom. The bottom is going to be when the market capitulates and you get massive sell volume.
Reply
Acel afterforever
@afterforever, yeah I know. its approaching apex. I can't trade currently because I'm not home. but I'm checking my charts and gdax often. I cant edit them tho and that's why I don't post images. It got me hooked!!
Reply
hi @Acel Can you explain what are we looking at on your last comment with the BTC USD longs please ?
Reply
Acel seiferflo
@seiferflo, I marked the drop with shift but it doesnt appear on the screenshot. I have no idea what FUD caused the drop this time, But it made the longs drop by 24% in just one hour and a little more later.

We had an increase on longs before the last dip few days back and a spike after bouncing of. The last 2 out of 3 hours they dropped by a lot and a lot lower than they used to be before the dip. I hope it looks better in this pic.
+1 Reply
Regarding your last comment, yes, it can be true, but I see no clear signal for a reversal yet. Unless something unexpected happens, even a positive FUD, some bull investor or whatever

+1 Reply
Acel ygorduraes
@ygorduraes, yeah i know, at the moment its pretty unclear. But catching the bottom is hard. I think that the risk to reward ratio is pretty good and i went in. Just wanted to pointed out the alternative. I placed an alert on 8.6k and its constantly finding resistance there.
+1 Reply
Acel ygorduraes
@ygorduraes, its also constantly finding support at EMA12 on GDAX 15min bars. I check it often to see if the small uptrend will shift.
+1 Reply
The 200 ema is currently around 8893, I think if it doesn't close above that today then it may fall further.
Reply
dbryan dbryan
@dbryan, 200 ema on the daily
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