ChrisD_Macro

BTC Death Cross Doesn't Matter (backtesting results)

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
The famous Death Cross pattern is close on Bitcoins daily chart .

The Death Cross is when the 50 day moving average moves below the 200 day moving average. The logic behind it is that both short term and long term trends are both negative, hence the term death.

The opposite is the Golden Cross, where the 50 moves above the 200 signaling that both short term and long term prices are positive.

Currently the Bitcoin prices at about $8500 is below both the 50 day and 200 day moving averages, this would potentially pull the 50 day average below the 200 day, signaling that Death Cross.

Until the 50 day moving average moves below the 200 and the daily chart closes, the Death Cross is not in effect.

But just because a bunch of people on Twitter are talking about the Death Cross as being the moment where Bitcoin goes to zero, doesn't mean that it is in fact the case.

So I decided to backtest the Death Cross and Golden Cross all the way back to 2014.

The results are not good for the Death Cross/Golden Cross proponents.

If you were trading this pattern, you would have lost approximately 11% of your money with 1 winning trade and 6 losing trades.

I don't know about you, but I'm not willing to make a trade based on this now Internet Famous chart pattern that flat out sucks...scientifically!
Great observation, thanks for sharing.
+1 Reply
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