Previous analysis/position: Multiple bearish indicators gave me confidence that we were in for a pullback and/or new lows. Short ETH:USD from $454.50
Patterns: Lower high on daily from $7,819 bounce and now a lower low give me good confirmation for my short position.
Horizontal support and resistance: $7,750 support currently being test and should provide a bounce. $8,000 should turn into formidable resistance and I expect it to create another lower high. $7,065 - $7,265 should serve as next area of support.
BTCUSDSHORTS: Found support at 18,558 and have sharply rebounded. Approaching 21,400 resistance.
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0832%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -1.08% and angling down | 26 = +4.2% | Recent bearish crossover on 1h, 2h, 3h, and 4h. Incoming on 6h.
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -1.40% | 128 = +9.93% | Recent bearish cross on 1h.
FIB’s: 0.236 = $5,920 | 0.382 = $8,496 | 0.5 = $10,677
Candlestick analysis: Hanging men and bearish spinning tops preceded sell of on the daily. 3 day shooting star provided good entry (sell once it re enters wick and put stop above FIB)
Ichimoku Cloud: Daily is still inside cloud. 2h recently fell below green cloud. C clamp on 12h.
TD’ Sequential: Price flip on daily.
Visible Range: Largest volume profile over last 24h = $8,129 | Over last 5 days = $8,174 | Over last month = $8,147 | Over last year = $8,000
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = -4.40% | 24h = -4.36% | 1w = -7.43% | 2w = +5.29% | 1m = +21.63%
Bollinger Bands: Daily MA = $7,455 | Completely outside bottom band on 4h.
Trendline: Starting to form downtrend on 1h.
Daily Trend: Bearish
Fractals: Just broke $7,817 down fractal. Next up is $7,218. UP = $8,505
On Balance Volume: Also made lower low on daily.
ADX: ADX is angling downward and +DI/-DI are converging. A crossover is expected in the next day.
Chaikin Money Flow: W > 0.05 | Daily still making new highs for bull div’
RSI: Daily = 54 and also made lower low.
Stoch: 3d provided great sell signal. 1d had recent sell signal and is returning to < 80. Weekly still looks healthy.
Summary: If not in a position then selling the bounce off $7,650 could provide a good entry. I will be closely watching for lower highs and lower lows to provide further confirmation about my position.
When the market is moving in your favor that is when it’s time to carefully monitor stop losses. Each time a lower high is established the stop loss gets adjusted accordingly - slightly above local high for shorts and slightly below local low for longs.
Manage risk and let the wins take care of themselves!
Thanks for reading!
Patterns: Lower high on daily from $7,819 bounce and now a lower low give me good confirmation for my short position.
Horizontal support and resistance: $7,750 support currently being test and should provide a bounce. $8,000 should turn into formidable resistance and I expect it to create another lower high. $7,065 - $7,265 should serve as next area of support.
BTCUSDSHORTS: Found support at 18,558 and have sharply rebounded. Approaching 21,400 resistance.
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0832%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -1.08% and angling down | 26 = +4.2% | Recent bearish crossover on 1h, 2h, 3h, and 4h. Incoming on 6h.
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -1.40% | 128 = +9.93% | Recent bearish cross on 1h.
FIB’s: 0.236 = $5,920 | 0.382 = $8,496 | 0.5 = $10,677
Candlestick analysis: Hanging men and bearish spinning tops preceded sell of on the daily. 3 day shooting star provided good entry (sell once it re enters wick and put stop above FIB)
Ichimoku Cloud: Daily is still inside cloud. 2h recently fell below green cloud. C clamp on 12h.
TD’ Sequential: Price flip on daily.
Visible Range: Largest volume profile over last 24h = $8,129 | Over last 5 days = $8,174 | Over last month = $8,147 | Over last year = $8,000
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = -4.40% | 24h = -4.36% | 1w = -7.43% | 2w = +5.29% | 1m = +21.63%
Bollinger Bands: Daily MA = $7,455 | Completely outside bottom band on 4h.
Trendline: Starting to form downtrend on 1h.
Daily Trend: Bearish
Fractals: Just broke $7,817 down fractal. Next up is $7,218. UP = $8,505
On Balance Volume: Also made lower low on daily.
ADX: ADX is angling downward and +DI/-DI are converging. A crossover is expected in the next day.
Chaikin Money Flow: W > 0.05 | Daily still making new highs for bull div’
RSI: Daily = 54 and also made lower low.
Stoch: 3d provided great sell signal. 1d had recent sell signal and is returning to < 80. Weekly still looks healthy.
Summary: If not in a position then selling the bounce off $7,650 could provide a good entry. I will be closely watching for lower highs and lower lows to provide further confirmation about my position.
When the market is moving in your favor that is when it’s time to carefully monitor stop losses. Each time a lower high is established the stop loss gets adjusted accordingly - slightly above local high for shorts and slightly below local low for longs.
Manage risk and let the wins take care of themselves!
Thanks for reading!
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