I believe 99% of chartists here are not seeing the bigger picture for Bitcoin.
Most are focusing on traditional indicators to try to guess relatively short-term moves (<10 weeks). Time and time again these chartists are being blindsided by Bitcoin as it makes its moves faster than predicted, as do other cryptocurrencies.
A handful are trying to project Bitcoin's next ATH by looking at the "run-up" or "bubble" of 2013, but what they are actually doing is looking at the period from October to December 2013.
To get an idea of what Bitcoin may well do over the next two years you need to look at what happened through 2012/2013, but first consider a couple of crucial fundamentals:
1. Halving - the time when the supply of Bitcoin coming to market from miners is cut in half. Happens once every four years. Last time in 2016; time before that 2012.
2. Anyone can buy Bitcoin - You do not need to be "accredited".
The reason Bitcoin is confounding chartists today using traditional techniques is because they don't consider properly the fact that the Bitcoin market has started reacting to the relatively recent halving in the supply of Bitcoins coming to the market from miners. This, coupled with the facts that: a) unlike stocks, like money Bitcoin can actually be used to buy goods, meaning that it is not necessary to take profits in fiat currency; b) buying Bitcoin is open to everyone, means that the supply/demand dynamic is fundamentally different to what one might expect across the range of traditional stocks and shares.
Other factors point to the wisdom behind considering the whole of 2013 - or at least the first "bubble" of 2013 over the second of that year - as a point of comparison by which to judge the future. As well as corresponding to the key point about halving (the 2013 price rises began a few months after the 2012 halving; today we are a few months past the most recent halving), the 2013 bull run began after a long and hard bear market for Bitcoin, which saw prices fall 90% and then rise again through an 18-month time period. Bitcoin's latest bear market is remarkably similar, just playing out over a longer time period (roughly twice as long).
Some today are pointing to arguments about development, scaling, etc. as if they are irreconcilable problems that will kill Bitcoin. In 2012/2013 Bitcoin had many problems, including hacks, a split in the blockchain, the run-up to Mt Gox. But most significantly there was significant concern that hard regulation would stifle Bitcoin; now we can see Bitcoin ETFs being proposed and sincerely considered by the SEC. In 2013 people were dreaming about what might happen if one small country adopted Bitcoin; today a large country like Japan has acted to support the integration of Bitcoin in their economy.
So, while dozens of charts pop up every day showing channels, lines, and spirals of all kinds, it is worth taking a step back to consider what is really going on and to remember history.
All the signs are there.
Most are focusing on traditional indicators to try to guess relatively short-term moves (<10 weeks). Time and time again these chartists are being blindsided by Bitcoin as it makes its moves faster than predicted, as do other cryptocurrencies.
A handful are trying to project Bitcoin's next ATH by looking at the "run-up" or "bubble" of 2013, but what they are actually doing is looking at the period from October to December 2013.
To get an idea of what Bitcoin may well do over the next two years you need to look at what happened through 2012/2013, but first consider a couple of crucial fundamentals:
1. Halving - the time when the supply of Bitcoin coming to market from miners is cut in half. Happens once every four years. Last time in 2016; time before that 2012.
2. Anyone can buy Bitcoin - You do not need to be "accredited".
The reason Bitcoin is confounding chartists today using traditional techniques is because they don't consider properly the fact that the Bitcoin market has started reacting to the relatively recent halving in the supply of Bitcoins coming to the market from miners. This, coupled with the facts that: a) unlike stocks, like money Bitcoin can actually be used to buy goods, meaning that it is not necessary to take profits in fiat currency; b) buying Bitcoin is open to everyone, means that the supply/demand dynamic is fundamentally different to what one might expect across the range of traditional stocks and shares.
Other factors point to the wisdom behind considering the whole of 2013 - or at least the first "bubble" of 2013 over the second of that year - as a point of comparison by which to judge the future. As well as corresponding to the key point about halving (the 2013 price rises began a few months after the 2012 halving; today we are a few months past the most recent halving), the 2013 bull run began after a long and hard bear market for Bitcoin, which saw prices fall 90% and then rise again through an 18-month time period. Bitcoin's latest bear market is remarkably similar, just playing out over a longer time period (roughly twice as long).
Some today are pointing to arguments about development, scaling, etc. as if they are irreconcilable problems that will kill Bitcoin. In 2012/2013 Bitcoin had many problems, including hacks, a split in the blockchain, the run-up to Mt Gox. But most significantly there was significant concern that hard regulation would stifle Bitcoin; now we can see Bitcoin ETFs being proposed and sincerely considered by the SEC. In 2013 people were dreaming about what might happen if one small country adopted Bitcoin; today a large country like Japan has acted to support the integration of Bitcoin in their economy.
So, while dozens of charts pop up every day showing channels, lines, and spirals of all kinds, it is worth taking a step back to consider what is really going on and to remember history.
All the signs are there.
Trade active:
The first of many more examples to come over the next few months, showing rational trades based on traditional tools, being thwarted by Bitcoin's unique supply/demand dynamic:
Expect many more of these - anywhere between 12-20 - of the same or even larger magnitude, over the next 5-8 months before the spike to ATH.
Expect many more of these - anywhere between 12-20 - of the same or even larger magnitude, over the next 5-8 months before the spike to ATH.
Comment:
I think the spike to ATH is going to happen sooner than predicted. Watch for an ATH in the second half of June.
Comment:
Another one bites the dust:
Trade closed manually:
Although Bitcoin may well carry on further, my personal investment has done enough to warrant a close.