BTCUSD - Bitcoin shaking out the weak, or about to crumble?

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
With BTC teetering on a large trendline lately, it is easy to think this movement is completed and the market is about to become bearish . However, we are over a month away from Segwit, and all signals still look OK on all timeframes. Our RSI trend looks touchy, but still healthy. The macro trendline of this entire bull run has been respected multiple times now.

Should we break 2200 and the monthly pivot though, the next clear target is 1800. This is where I will be picking up an additional BTC . If it somehow falls through that, 1600 is next support line. And finally if this market completely tumbles, 1200 is the clear support line that I simply cannot imagine being broken. If I'm 90% sure 1600-1800 will hold, I am damn near 100% that 1200 will.

With that being said though, until we clear August 1st with Segwit, this market has no reason to reverse to bearish . I can see a large dump after Segwit similar to LTC. That would make sense. But this is such a great opportunity to snake in a ton of weak money before August 1st and dump on them after it's activated due to dumb money flooding in.

But hey, predicting markets is impossible so who knows. All in all I feel good, but keeping an eye on 2200 on Finex/GDAX is critical. Staying above 2400 for a day or two should point towards a moderate recovery.


From what I know, a lot of people would rather put money in other currencies before BIP148 on Aug 1st.
Hybred sifeij
@sifeij, There will be some large BTC dips on the way there given that there is a very good chance August 1st will be good news. Dumb money buys after Aug 1st, smart money was already in and is ready to dump on the weak FOMO hands.

Expect this. Prepare accordingly.
sifeij Hybred
@Hybred, Thank you for sharing your view. I am struggling to find the proper level to enter. The chart reminds me back when the Bitcoin hits 1350 for the first time, I am hesitated to chase the high now. At the same time, I am feeling bad missing the uptrend run for the past two days.
Hybred sifeij
@sifeij, Yeah I can understand the fear of watching BTC fall under during the last crash. However the entire movement is still bullish, so it's best to not doubt it until it fully reverses. 2200 was a strong support as you can see from the chart, so buying at 2200~ and having a sell ready should it drop would have been the way to play that. In terms of the last dump your situations:

Buy at 2250-2300~
Option 1: IF it dropped under 2000, sell and take minor losses. Buy back AGAIN at 1800~. (This is critical, as it recovers your previous small loss. Not buying back is how weak hands stay weak.)

Option 2: IF it dropped under 2000, hold and buy more @ 1600-1800 to bring your average down.

Your result would have been positive, but there were two approaches where you could have statistically/mathematically made it out alive. And truthfully if BTC mega dumps it's likely a full trend reversal and the market is bearish for awhile. That's like predicting the rain when the sun is still out.
sifeij Hybred
@Hybred, long term, I agree it's bullish. you are right, I might just go with option 2, normally that's my style, giving that I believe this is a bull market overall. Thank you for the analysis. Keep up the good work! Take care.
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