BTC 3-hour forecast. Machine learning.

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Dear colleagues and followers,

The Osiris team remains constantly improving predictive and trading algorithms to deliver the best results achievable. We are using the bearish trend of the recent days as a wonderful opportunity to stress-test our systems and to make them less susceptible to statistical outliers.

Recently, there was a steady drop in bitcoin price from the $4,080 resistance against the US Dollar . The BTC/USD pair declined and traded below the $3,800 and $3,700 levels. However, buyers were able to protect losses below the $3,580 support area . A base was formed near $3,600 and later the price started a decent upward move. It climbed higher and broke the $3,700 and $3,800 resistance levels. (Source: https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/11/28/bitco...)

The world’s second largest stock exchange Nasdaq and U.S. investment firm VanEck have announced a partnership to jointly launch a set of “transparent, regulated and surveilled” digital assets products. VanEck’s director of digital asset strategy Gabor Gurbacs tweeted the news Nov. 27. Gurbacs revealed the partnership at the Consensus:Invest crypto conference in New York City. The announcement echoes yesterday’s report from Bloomberg, citing “two people familiar with the matter,” that Nasdaq would be rolling out a Bitcoin futures contract as early as Q1 ‘19. Gurbacs indicated in his tweet that the new products would harness Nasdaq’s SMARTS Market Surveillance system, alongside VanEck’s MVIS digital asset pricing indices. (Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/nasdaq-pa...)

Coinbase launches its over-the-counter trading desk for its institutional Prime customers today, with plans to integrate delayed settlement and Coinbase Custody. This move will reduce the costs of acquiring cryptocurrency for institutions and help reduce overall market volatility . In an interview with Cheddar, Christine Sandler, head of sales at Coinbase, described the move as “opportunistic,” and a response to client demand. (Source: https://cryptoslate.com/coinbase-launche...)

Securities Exchange Commission Chair Jay Clayton is reluctant to add digital currency ETFs, including Bitcoin ETFs, over fears of market manipulation, centralization, and custody security. Speaking at Consensus Invest in New York , Clayton said he will not support ETFs for a financial product until there are measures in place to ensure that it is free of manipulation. As stated by Clayton: “What investors expect is that trading in a commodity that underlies an ETF makes sense and is free from the risk of manipulation. . . It’s an issue that needs to be addressed before I would be comfortable .” (Source: https://cryptoslate.com/sec-chair-jay-cl...)

The following is a scheduled notification from the Osiris team. Our models have been working hard and smart on forecasting the market, and here are the most up-to-date predictions for the next 3 hours:

As usual, red, green and blue rectangles demonstrate predicted values of low, high and close, respectively, with corresponding confidence intervals, and the black arrow illustrates our trades.

High: 4337.77
Low: 4104.02
Close: 4190.46

During the recent days, the “hash wars” surrounding the Bitcoin Cash hard fork have intensified. As predicted by the Osiris Team, the pool Bitcoin .com representing over 40% of the Bitcoin ABC hash rate post-fork has slowed its mining. Miners supporting the SV chain have capitalised on this opportunity and, for a brief period of time, have gained the lead in terms of blocks mined and the network hash rate, SV chain being 32 blocks ahead and controlling 71% of the hash rate for a brief period (Source: https://cash.coin.dance/). However, this advantage was short-lived, as the ABC chain has quickly caught up almost immediately. As for now, the ABC chain is leading once again, with an outstanding 55 block-advantage and over 67% of hash rate (Sources: https://cash.coin.dance/, https://blockchair.com/bitcoin-cash/bloc...). Just as the Osiris Team has asserted previously, the SV chain remains much more concentrated in terms of hashing power distribution, with its native SV pool mining over 60% of the recent blocks in the chain. The ABC chain shows a much more balanced picture, with no pool having more than 30% of the mined blocks. In terms of mining profitability, the SV chain is extremely volatile, currently being 28% more profitable to mine on than Bitcoin (before Bitcoin SV price hike, it used to be twice as profitable to mine on the Bitcoin chain). Bitcoin ABC , in turn, manages to secure a robust advantage in terms of mining profitability compared to Bitcoin , fluctuating from 5% to 15% depending on the current BAB price. This remains a major factor in explaining the diverse mix of mining pools currently working on the ABC chain (Source: https://cash.coin.dance/). The Osiris Team, despite acknowledging the unfortunate downward trend of the recent days, reminds that BAB has overall performed comparatively well to the market in general, and, due to fundamental factors outlined above, remains bullish on the coin.

Thank you for staying in touch. We are looking forward to your feedback and any suggestions here at TradingView.
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