Nathanael
Short

Who knows with bitcoin.

MTGOX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
1781 15 12
Disclosure: I am new with E.W theory. I would love to hear some feedback from other EW experts out there.

I am not sure if the a,b,c waves are just a correction phase, or the start of a downtrend. In this graph, I am assuming its just a giant correction, before we head up. (if I thought it was a trend change, then I would apply 1,2,3,4,5 as opposed to a,b,c)

Assuming that I marked my waves correctly, and that we do continue to head down, then we should at LEAST see a correction to the 385 zone. According to the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle "Wave C is typically at least as large as wave A and often extends to 1.618 times wave A or beyond"

In this chart I have assumed wave C will be the same length, which also is a full 100% full fib retrace.

Fundamentally, it seems a little optimistic at this point in time, but fear of "the big correction", mixed with that cliche "return to the mean" chart getting passed around on reddit, maybe sprinkle some bad press in there, and this is totally possible.

But in the end, who knows with bitcoin .

Peace, and good luck.

EDIT: Since Gox's API is still acting up, here is the same idea but with BTC China:
BTC china version
Do you still expect us to drop to around 380 USD despite the current rally?
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same chart, but stretched the fib out so you can see how its playing out. Still sticking to this plan
snapshot
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“Robert Prechter’s June 2011 Elliott Wave Theorist put it,

"Some fans think the government will fail in killing bitcoin. It would be nice if bitcoin were more powerful than governments, but don’t kid yourself. An organization with a monopoly on bombs, prisons, SWAT teams and initiating force can do what it wants. While it may initially seem difficult to stop individuals from using bitcoins, it is well to realize that government can crush anybody and anything. All it need do is declare trading in bitcoins a capital crime and announce that its agents are secretly transacting in bitcoins in order to catch violators. It could do the same thing to halt trading in gold or any other useful medium of exchange.

“But authoritarian regimes lose their grip in the long run, and bitcoins are the money of the future. Whether this particular version of money survives or not, bitcoin has shown society’s way out of the legal counterfeiting standard that we have today.”

http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2013/12/13/Bitcoin-What-s-Behind-the-Run-Up-Not-Much.aspx#axzz2nNyS2mTR
Follow us: @elliottwaveintl on Twitter | ElliottWaveInternational on Facebook
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Here is the same chart, but with BTC China, as Gox's API is still not working:
BTC china version
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Yep. Someone on GOX pumped the price yesterday to keep it in that "uptrend" channel, and now all the api's are frozen and theres next to no volume in china? It doesnt feel right
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Be afraid of price creeps on low volume.
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Nathanael BryceWH
like it is currently?
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minbari PRO Nathanael
Market teetering, market falling down, suddenly the biggest exchanges stop functioning and Wall Street rumours abound; ignore the man behind the curtain.
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cmvxo minbari
@minbari i am intrigued by your quote
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"Fundamentally, it seems a little optimistic at this point in time"

You meant pessimistic probably?
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