Bitcoin - The last 3 options - Chose wisely!
We are obvious on the last leg down and my best estimates at this point is that we have 3 options.
Option 1 - If this is a mild ABC correction the price will turn around $9,640 At this fib level we know the ABC is finished and we continue to move up.
Option 2 - If this is a little deeper ABC correction the price will turn around $9,022 At this fib level we know the ABC is finished and we continue to move up.
Option 3 - If this is NOT an ABC but a 5 Wave move down the price will continue to around $8,236 before turning north again. However this is NOT the climb out. It would just be the completion of Wave 3 down followed by Wave 4 up. Once wave 4 up is finished the price could continue down as low as the $7,200 area or finish anytime before hitting that mark.
In conclusion, you won't know if this is an ABC until this leg down finishes. At the higher Fibs noted on the chart it is an ABC if not we are in a 5 Wave move down.
Scary times my friends. There will be a lot of volatility and a lot of uncertainty.
My plan is to start accumulating under $10K and continue adding a little at a time until we hit this bottom where ever that may be.
Good luck and batten down the hatches it's going to be a bumpy ride!
P.S. I have plotted the various possibilities on the chart. Two possible ABC moves and one Wave 5 move. Obviously only one of them may be correct in the end. (or none)
Option 1 - If this is a mild ABC correction the price will turn around $9,640 At this fib level we know the ABC is finished and we continue to move up.
Option 2 - If this is a little deeper ABC correction the price will turn around $9,022 At this fib level we know the ABC is finished and we continue to move up.
Option 3 - If this is NOT an ABC but a 5 Wave move down the price will continue to around $8,236 before turning north again. However this is NOT the climb out. It would just be the completion of Wave 3 down followed by Wave 4 up. Once wave 4 up is finished the price could continue down as low as the $7,200 area or finish anytime before hitting that mark.
In conclusion, you won't know if this is an ABC until this leg down finishes. At the higher Fibs noted on the chart it is an ABC if not we are in a 5 Wave move down.
Scary times my friends. There will be a lot of volatility and a lot of uncertainty.
My plan is to start accumulating under $10K and continue adding a little at a time until we hit this bottom where ever that may be.
Good luck and batten down the hatches it's going to be a bumpy ride!
P.S. I have plotted the various possibilities on the chart. Two possible ABC moves and one Wave 5 move. Obviously only one of them may be correct in the end. (or none)
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A 2 hour view of the 3 Options.
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We are at another option Turn @ 10,800 and retrace back to 12K to 12.2 or so. (double top as previously mentioned) Either way, we should be coming down to hit these marks. Like I said, it's going to get volatile for awhile. Long / Short, pic your poison. and use protection...
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I'm long again Under 10,900. Going to try to play this retrace if we get it....
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I'm out. Scalped a few hundred and ran. I'm sitting out for now looking for better prices under $11K
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Good morning. Here's a 4 hour view of what I am currently watching. I have already started to ladder in some buy orders from the .786 Fib on down to the 1.0 and beyond.
You will notice the Baby Blue vertical lines I used as a measurement stick are EXACTLY equal length and hit EXACTLY on the 1.0 Fib. This is the expected technical target for this move at a minimum. Can the price extend lower? Yes, depending on the technical conditions at the time, seller panic, etc.
Even if we were to go all the way down to $7K that is not a very big window in the grand scheme of things. $10K down to $7K is a $3K windows. Any long term HODL buys in this range should pay off well this time next year IMO. For more statistically accurate buys though, I would stick with buys around the various FIB levels as this is where we are most likely to see the next "turn" to the upside.
Good luck.
You will notice the Baby Blue vertical lines I used as a measurement stick are EXACTLY equal length and hit EXACTLY on the 1.0 Fib. This is the expected technical target for this move at a minimum. Can the price extend lower? Yes, depending on the technical conditions at the time, seller panic, etc.
Even if we were to go all the way down to $7K that is not a very big window in the grand scheme of things. $10K down to $7K is a $3K windows. Any long term HODL buys in this range should pay off well this time next year IMO. For more statistically accurate buys though, I would stick with buys around the various FIB levels as this is where we are most likely to see the next "turn" to the upside.
Good luck.
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The pink 1 Fib line at $9669 area would be a significant "double bottom" scenario. I'll be placing buy orders around here too. A little here, a little there, until I have committed all of my available cash to this trade. Then is HODL city for me. :0)
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Keep in mind that ALL C waves consist of 5 sub-waves. We have completed 2 sub-waves down and working on the 3rd wave down on the 4 hour chart. You should be able to see this already on the chart above. After we move up for the 4th wave and then down for the 5th THAT is a very good time to go long IMO. (Not advice, just one person's opinion)
Good long scalps can also be made on wave 4 up but don't over stay your welcome because another wave down should follow.
Good luck.
Good long scalps can also be made on wave 4 up but don't over stay your welcome because another wave down should follow.
Good luck.
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I'm playing the bounce of this trendline. If all of this so far was wave A down then a B up is to follow. Then C down.
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Of course if this line does not hold and we continue lower then that idea is off the table and back to the original theme.
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I'm going to take my profit soon. This is looking corrective and I'm scared.
"If you're scared, say you're scared!" LOL
"If you're scared, say you're scared!" LOL
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I'm out. Nice profits. :0)
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Here's why I am out. Look at the yellow 200 EMA on the 4 hour. First the price bounce off it (look left) then recently we broke below it. Will is server as a point of resistance? I'm not sticking around right now to find out. I took the money and ran. I'll look for better prices if we continue to break down.
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Do these two patterns look similar to you? They do to me. Perhaps we will fart around at this level for awhile and then continue the dump? Anything is possible. I'm still waiting and watching....
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Be prepared for the reversal. This is looking like a much larger ABC like the first one on the left of the chart. Notice how the purple vertical rectangle could match the same move on the right. Notice how that would also complete a sub-5 Wave down to finish the larger Wave A down which is also made up of an ABC.
It looks like this correction may finish the same way it started with a LARGE ABC. Once we finish this A wave down everyone will think it is over and pile into wave B up. That may hit around the .618 Fib and reverse for the final C wave down rekting many in the process. There is a lot of money to be made in these moves if you can read them correctly and catch each of the major moves. Good luck!
My plan is to go long at the bottom of Wave A as show on the chart. Assuming of course that my analysis is correct and I didn't miss something. :0)
It looks like this correction may finish the same way it started with a LARGE ABC. Once we finish this A wave down everyone will think it is over and pile into wave B up. That may hit around the .618 Fib and reverse for the final C wave down rekting many in the process. There is a lot of money to be made in these moves if you can read them correctly and catch each of the major moves. Good luck!
My plan is to go long at the bottom of Wave A as show on the chart. Assuming of course that my analysis is correct and I didn't miss something. :0)
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So close, and yet so far....
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I had to go put the tractor in the barn. I just got back in time to hopefully see my orders fill. :0)