LastBattle
Short

End of the current Bitcoin fib cycle

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
Bitcoin is innovative, it is ground breaking, it is disruptive.
That's not enough, its never the invention but mass adoption of the technology that drives a cycle.

For the next rally to be truly sustainable Bitcoin needs a critical adoption and a new killer app. Silk road is one of the first true killer app of Bitcoin , including Purse.io that provides people an incentive to use it. The anonymous and frictionless money for drugs, and discounts on Amazon.

The same can be said for the tech bubble of 2000s.
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The core companies that made up the ecosystem of Bitcoin are not faring so well too. Bitcoin's technology, the Blockchain might well be the one that kills it. Circle, Bitreserve, BitPay.
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/circle-bitreserve-bitpay-struggle-lack-of-bitcoin-adoption-2015-11


Could it be the coming collapse of the U.S. Dollar that will push Bitcoin?
Not yet, I don't think it will lose its global reserve currency status at least in the next 10 years. There are over 100s of trillions of assets detonated in USD (bonds, treasury, real estate, stocks ). Next panic will instead set off a rally in dollar when they're all converted to cash. Dollar is really still the best bet, even if its massively printed by the FED.

China have a bigger problem in their hands, from the collapse of their housing bubble to stocks and a weakening economy that still relies heavily on export. They'll never be ready to take over just yet. Not even China's gold             holdings, when its value drops massively against the USD. After all who cares about the yellow pet rock when its not gaining in value? (people are delusional yes, although it defines the true money and not 'currency')

No other country is even close to being ready to take over the USD, and they're illiquid and given their relative size they will not allow appreciation of their currency or the cost of living for the locals will hyperinflate (ask the Swiss)


Ask any man on the street, and they're still happy with their dimes, pennies, Dollars, and plastic.
Is there any other reason to use Bitcoin other than that?
Sure you may say that the Greek or the Chinese are getting their money out of the 'capital control' area, but eventually they're not keeping in BTC but another FIAT elsewhere in the world

I think that Bitcoin will do well in sideways over the next few years, but hardly a bubble we've seen in 2011-2013 at least in the next 5 years.
Give it time to innovate in niche market, and muscle its way into mainstream but never give it up entirely.
BuyBitcoin.WS
a year ago
very good points, until then I think we will just keep seeing attempts for pumps n dumps and remain above 200 until then (although I still believe that mass adoption of Bitcoin will occur at $68)
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grahvity
a year ago
And remember that BTC/USD is a ratio. What happens when the denominator gets large? 2016 might get ugly for Bitcoin price if this harmonic plays out.
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LastBattle grahvity
a year ago
Yes, that's what I'm really worried about :D Bitcoin may do well relative to other currency but not the ratio to USD.
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oaksacorn LastBattle
a year ago
You can't even correlate the two. Bitcoin could rally to 52,000 with just an increase of 157% of ownership and the demand for dollars will not even flinch. At this point, it is about perception of the dollar value 7-10 years from now. In some ways it is a win win. Continue rally from here set off a carry trade fiasco (bullish bitcoin). Break from here only reinstates the spirit of bitcoin. On a log scale, it has only just begun and where they dollar trades right now does not even matter.
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AlexU
a year ago
wow, a guy with actual economic sense, who trades bitcoin is rare these days, very nice.

Bitcoin can maybe rise for the same reasons gold will rise again someday, only when confidence in government collapses.

Bitcoin will never be a common every-day currency IMO, the incentive-structure is all wrong for that.
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RooKiED
a year ago
Amen.
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