Attrition

Huge cloud upon us / Short Idea

Short
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Huge Ichimoku Cloud is upon us combined with almost all other indicators signaling bearish movement. See you at 4-5k, the last 4 digit bottom of Bitcoin .

Comments

I've been telling my circle since early September this was coming. Can't convince anyone but its ok. I did my deed. I've been ready for months now. I'm saying before Feb 2020 is over I will have bought BTC at 3800. Maybe less judging by the price action. I expected it to settle around 7200-7400 before the cliff but apparently it's looking to settle around 6900 before the cliff. If that's the case I'm thinking we may see a bottom at around 3400. Time will tell, but at 3800 I'll start my TA based DCA process.
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Attrition cryptospawn
@cryptospawn, That's my biggest problem atm, not sure if longing 5k is viable because we may very well reach low 4k's even 3k, don't want to get good profit from shorting then lose it all longing.
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cryptospawn Attrition
@Attrition, absolutely. These are times when the risk/reward ratio scale is tipped a bit too much for my comfort. As I have advised my circle I'd stay away from longing anything at all, until I've seen the items listed below. The last cliff which reached a bottom mid December 2018 didn't start a true recovery until Feb 8th, and the ensuing bull rush didn't arrive until around April 1st 2019. BTC remained in that gutter for 4 1/2 months. If the cliff repeats then we can cautiously conclude the following accumulation period will repeat as well. Therefore to me longing will sound like a bad idea until these have happened:

1) BTC must have dropped by at least 45% signaling a potential bottom is in or near.
2) The line between bearish and bullish among TA indicators will need to blur just a bit. At the slightest sign I'll know it's time to pull the trigger.

At that point I'm sure I won't catch the absolute bottom but I think the return will be solid since the entry point should be close to half what it is today. Only then would I consider longing.
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Attrition cryptospawn
@cryptospawn, Feb 2020 is almost here but BTC is nowhere near 3.8k
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cryptospawn Attrition
@Attrition, Yep, and so longing is out of the question for me. Looking at the long term chart over the past 7 months shows what is still a descending triangle. While we have seen bullish signs over the last few weeks, those are only short term trends which still lead to long term slow bleeding. We should be zooming out and looking at the big picture. Big picture says we are still establishing lower highs and lower lows. In order for that pattern to be broken BTC will need to close above $9,832 or so at the minimum although the true mark is about $10,316. Anything below that is just another failed attempt. The last bull push took us just over 9K and is now dipping which again shows another failed attempt and another long term lower low. It is true we have been establishing short term higher highs and lows. But that's only short term and that's why I err on the side of caution. Anytime the market starts to waffle like this I take a back seat. This type of show is not for me. Once it shows clearer signs then I'll jump in. Consider that BTC just saw a small bull run, RSI is flashing overbought, price action is at the top end of the Bollinger bands, and we are entering the pre-halving stage, which typically brings on a lagging BTC market, and in the end you have to conclude the price is bound to continue the downtrend. What's your take on price over the next 5 months or so?
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Attrition cryptospawn
@cryptospawn, I believe this is not the start of the so called "golden bullrun" as most people currently say and fomo in. I think at best we will get another fakeout to 9.5k levels which will become the local top and we'll slowly bleed and finally reach around the weekly 200MA and stay there for a month or two which will be the bottom and the accumulation zone afterwards that i'm long term bullish and think we will see our 20k ATH at worst in 2 years.
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cryptospawn Attrition
@Attrition, Wow! it sure is refreshing to find someone who is not selling moons and lambos. 20K in two years is a very conservative mark. I can't really disagree with you though. If bulls continue playing this see saw game eventually investors can reach exhaustion and either park their holdings long term, or begin to exit. This could definitely cause btc to lag for another 2 years and not reach 20K again until 2022 as you state.

Price is dipping again as I expected and I'm thinking we can see it dip down to just under 8K over the next week or so. After breaking below 8K another smaller pump will take place bringing the new lower high to around 8600. Once it breaks below that it should again slow bleed and find it's low level at around 7300 where it was resting weeks ago. This should happen right after the first half of Feb. It should rest in the 7300 range for a week or so, then bull exhaustion will set in because whales are not taking part in this right now. Once bull exhaustion sets in we should see dips to around 6300 range followed by another hard dip under 5000 and if whales don't step in we can even see 3800. Some analysts are even talking about possibly seeing 2100 but I can't really see it going that low. If we get another dip and it turns out to be lower that the 3300 we had last spring that would be very bad news as it could indicate potential death signal for crypto as a whole. But we know that won't happen so it's safe to conclude that the next dip will stay above 3300 if we even get that low.

Iv'e learned the hard way to think like a whale. If it makes whales rich it should make sense to me. Look at the charts over the past two years and see if you can tell me with a straight face that the similarities between the two pumps are a coincidence. We must keep in mind that the BTC chart is nothing more than a chart that shows human behavior in BTC investing. And it is repeated because it is profitable, and for no other reason. And given the chance they will wash, rinse, repeat for as long as they can profit from it. I'm following you now. TLAW
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