Btc short-term analysis with Ichimoku

With the recent powerful leg-up, btc managed to exit above the Kumo cloud on the 1D time frame. However, there are a few things to note:

• The cloud is red, meaning it is a resistance cloud thus less likely to act as support. Although the price passed through the SSB effortlessly, the SSB still acts as resistance unless the price action consolidates around it and turns it into support, which without strong continuation of bull momentum is quite unlikely.
  
• The Tenkan and Kijun are still far below, and the Tenkan will only start moving up in 3 days from now after it stops counting our lowest low at $34.5k (if we do not make a new higher high by then). The Kijun will only start moving down slightly in like a week from now. Those two lines act as strong magnets for the price action especially as a trend starts weakening. Since the Tenkan is not going to be moving in the next days, it leaves btc hanging up there with no notable support. Thus it is reasonable to expect the price to first fall to the 25D moving average (a reliable magnet and support as well) first, then meet the TS, and from then on the latter will either act as support, enabling btc to test $45k again (?) or fail and we will go down to find support on the Kijun around $40k.
  

Tell me what you think about that.

Comment:

It looks like we have found support on the 25D MA at the moment; the TS will converge with it tomorrow around $41k; if support holds during the day I think we could have another shot at $43k by tomorrow, but we will meet strong resistance up there (which you can see on the 1hr and 2hr tf with Ichimoku, plus the SSB of the 1D tf.). 1D RSI hovering above 50, so we're kind of at a pivot point. In my opinion, the bias is bearish, since we immediately failed after breaking above the SSB, which highly hinders another run up to $50k. It rather confirms that this big leg up was because of an exogenous (external) demand shock to the market which does not properly reflect the actual demand for BTC at current levels.

Comment:

, this demand shock being caused by the current war in eastern Europe.