Rashad

Big Rally possible, but Resistance is Ahead.

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
640 0 2
Bitcoin is facing resistance right now at 0.764 on a Fibonacci retracement from the last rally that hit 305.10. If Bitcoin breaks past the current resistance at $268.96, then the next important resistance area to consider will be at ~$305.10, at which point the current bull run could stagnate or advance even higher if that price is broken. But we will have to wait and see if we break the current resistance. Right now is a risky entry, so If you are looking to go long I recommend using a small amount of capital, or leverage a small amount of capital. Be careful not to enter on a quick move above the current level of resistance as quick moves are likely to happen under these conditions, therefore they could just as quickly reverse.
Technical Break-Down
- The price is currently above it's 20 Day EMA which is Bullish
- The Fibonacci retracement is drawn from $305.10 to $151.98. Currently there is resistance at the current price of $268.96.
- The VI+ has moved out of extreme territory and below 1.3, while VI- has moved below 0.7. Evidence of the current resistance. However the Vortex indicator is still giving a Buy signal currently.
-RSI 7 is above RSI 14, so the Bulls have more traction right now. But at the same time both are above 80, which makes the current level very overbought. Be cautious of a move below 80, and RSI crossing under RSI 14

Overall, this Bullrun may make it possible for Bitcoin to finally exit the brutal bear market that has murdered its price over the last year. The buying makes sense considering all the news. The winklevoss twin's Bitcoin exchange will launch in a few monthes if all goes well. The news alone is enough to trigger this buying frenzy. Bitcoin could very well reach the moon by the end of 2015, but don't expect anything spectacular. The more people that adopt Bitcoin , the less a 7 period standard deviation will deviate from its absolute mean (If you don't believe me try it in excel).

Overall it all comes down to what value that investors see in Bitcoin . Smartmoney was Buying the dip because they knew that the $170 and below valuations, although dangerous for Bitcoin , weren't fair prices. Bitcoin then moved back up to its absolute mean which is about ~$220. The fact that it passed it again is very bullish . Bitcoin appears to run in a cycle of bubbles. Think about when Bitcoin went to $15 in 2011 then below $2 by november that year. Then it moved above it mean. Then next bubble to $260, then the next to $1200. If Bitcoin successfully marches upwards out of this dip, it could be the start of another bubble. Coupled with more VC             interest this time and an Exchange (Gemini), it won't be a small one. Bitcoin could possibly see above $1000 again. But as I said, don't expect a miracle, even that's a pretty extreme bet for the end of 2015.
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