80% Bear vs. 20% Bull

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
1. Moving Average showing the upside-limit to bulls atm. Reminds me a bit of April 2014, but see point 3 RSI . A break with bigger volume could be considered as a legit buysignal. Could take us easily back above $ 500-550.

2. Volume was large during the sell-off and the following bounce. At least we can read from it, that we reached a key-level with strong support. The latest low volume , shows we are in a unsettled period, such as a bottom. But the green candles are slightly drecreasing, which could indicate that this bounce was not more than a reaction to the panicsells before. The lack of confidence is getting bigger imo , which is a reason for the latest sideways consolidation. So we definetly have a preliminary bottom in regards to what we can read of the volume , but a retest of $330-350 would reveal more about the true strength of support here.

3. RSI found a historical low during the sell-off and bounced quiet strong, but struggles atm to stay above 40 points. In regards to the similiarities to April 2014, this does not look as strong as April, which makes me doubt, that the current situation will resolve in the same way. In case of an upside leg above 50 points we would break out of the bubble correction downtrend and see many green candles..

4. CVI shows us how much new money flows into the market. Since September we are seeing lots of $$ pulled out of the market. The break of the longterm bubble support was basically a headshot to any bullish sentiment and this should limit our expectations of a strong bounce or even reversal.

Conclusion: The outlined facts are in favor of bears, moreover the fact that the only thing atm holding us at this level is the 10k wall at Hubi, does not really contribute to an increasing confidence. You could see this as an opportunity to sell here before we go down, the whale with the 10k wall probably doing the same atm.

Forget about calling targets here. Just dont forget to close your shorts, after I did ;)
Large volume sell-off was short term holders consolidating and buying in at lower prices

And bearwhale.
No1 MarvinMartian
Sure the 30k bearwhale could be considered an extraordinary part, which distorts the "volume" of the sell-off and therefore it is reasonble to look at it spereratly. But in total I would still say we have seen the largest volume since May at least.
-1 Reply
"10k wall at Hubi, " -- RIP 16 minutes ago :D
+1 Reply
Please notice that CVI(0) calculates the CVI of NYSE - not the one of BTC.
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