The current price action appears to be respecting the 2014 fractal. I came to this conclusion using the following clues:
Here is the 2014 chart for comparison. I have highlighted critical reversal points at S/R levels:
We are currently at a major resistance level caused by the down-sloping trendline and the 50% retracement. There is also strong resistance at the 61.8% retracement and the 12-month moving average (around $8200). Here is my moving average idea if you are interested:
I am short-term bearish until we correct to at least 23.6% or take out 61.8%. I'm long-term bearish unless a monthly candle closes above the 12-month MA.
- In both 2014 and 2018, after falling below the symmetrical triangle, price was attracted back towards the apex of the triangle (which is a common occurrence in many markets).
- In both years, the apex of the triangle lies at about a 50% retracement from the last major reversal at the down-sloping trendline and the lowest low.
Here is the 2014 chart for comparison. I have highlighted critical reversal points at S/R levels:
We are currently at a major resistance level caused by the down-sloping trendline and the 50% retracement. There is also strong resistance at the 61.8% retracement and the 12-month moving average (around $8200). Here is my moving average idea if you are interested:
I am short-term bearish until we correct to at least 23.6% or take out 61.8%. I'm long-term bearish unless a monthly candle closes above the 12-month MA.
Comment:
I didn't notice this initially, but the fractal appears to form an inverse right shoulder, with a measured move target of $9800. The fractal reverses just $300 below that at the 88.6% retracement. Also, we are currently on a daily TD 9. I don't use TD Sequential, but I believe this calls for a correction within the next few candles. There is a lot of confluence supporting this idea, so I will update again if I see anything else.