**First and foremost, shout out to Steve Courtney from CCU, as this is his original idea.**
The above chart illustrates the Bitcoin (BTC) bull market phases from 2013 to 2025 using Fibonacci retracement levels. Here's a breakdown of the 5 phases and their implications:
Phase 1: The initial accumulation phase, marked by a consolidation period before significant upward movement. This phase typically lies between 0 (bottom of the bear market) to .382 Fibonacci levels.
Phase 2: The breakout phase, where the price starts to gain momentum, reaching the 0.786 Fibonacci level.
Phase 3: Continued upward movement reaching the 1.0 Fibonacci level (top of the prior bull market), signaling the start of significant bullish sentiment.
Phase 4: Further price appreciation towards the 1.618 Fibonacci level. Historically, this level has been a critical resistance point.
Phase 5: The final euphoric phase, reaching up to the 2.36 Fibonacci level, often indicating the peak of the bull market before a significant correction.
Historical Analysis:
* 2013 Bull Market: BTC completed all 5 phases, peaking near the 2.36 Fibonacci level.
* 2015-2017 Bull Market: Again, BTC completed all 5 phases, peaking near the 2.36 Fibonacci level.
* 2019-2021 Bull Market: Due to diminishing returns, BTC only reached Phase 4, peaking near the 1.618 Fibonacci level.
Current Market (2023-2025):
* Current Phase: BTC appears to be in Phase 3, approached the 1.0 Fibonacci level (top of the prior bull market).
* Projection: If the trend of diminishing returns continues, BTC might only reach Phase 3 or potentially Phase 4, surprising many in the crypto community who expect a full 5-phase bull run.
* Time-Based Analysis: Typically, BTC bull markets last about 3 years. Given that we are still within this timeframe, there is potential for BTC to push into Phases 4 and 5, which would significantly surprise those not invested in crypto (no-coiners).
Conclusion:
While the historical price-based analysis suggests that BTC might not exceed Phase 3 due to diminishing returns, the time-based analysis provides hope for a continuation into Phases 4 and even 5 within the typical 3-year bull market cycle. This dual perspective highlights the uncertainty and potential surprise factors in the ongoing bull market.
Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
The above chart illustrates the Bitcoin (BTC) bull market phases from 2013 to 2025 using Fibonacci retracement levels. Here's a breakdown of the 5 phases and their implications:
Phase 1: The initial accumulation phase, marked by a consolidation period before significant upward movement. This phase typically lies between 0 (bottom of the bear market) to .382 Fibonacci levels.
Phase 2: The breakout phase, where the price starts to gain momentum, reaching the 0.786 Fibonacci level.
Phase 3: Continued upward movement reaching the 1.0 Fibonacci level (top of the prior bull market), signaling the start of significant bullish sentiment.
Phase 4: Further price appreciation towards the 1.618 Fibonacci level. Historically, this level has been a critical resistance point.
Phase 5: The final euphoric phase, reaching up to the 2.36 Fibonacci level, often indicating the peak of the bull market before a significant correction.
Historical Analysis:
* 2013 Bull Market: BTC completed all 5 phases, peaking near the 2.36 Fibonacci level.
* 2015-2017 Bull Market: Again, BTC completed all 5 phases, peaking near the 2.36 Fibonacci level.
* 2019-2021 Bull Market: Due to diminishing returns, BTC only reached Phase 4, peaking near the 1.618 Fibonacci level.
Current Market (2023-2025):
* Current Phase: BTC appears to be in Phase 3, approached the 1.0 Fibonacci level (top of the prior bull market).
* Projection: If the trend of diminishing returns continues, BTC might only reach Phase 3 or potentially Phase 4, surprising many in the crypto community who expect a full 5-phase bull run.
* Time-Based Analysis: Typically, BTC bull markets last about 3 years. Given that we are still within this timeframe, there is potential for BTC to push into Phases 4 and 5, which would significantly surprise those not invested in crypto (no-coiners).
Conclusion:
While the historical price-based analysis suggests that BTC might not exceed Phase 3 due to diminishing returns, the time-based analysis provides hope for a continuation into Phases 4 and even 5 within the typical 3-year bull market cycle. This dual perspective highlights the uncertainty and potential surprise factors in the ongoing bull market.
Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.