The rabbit hole (through the looking glass) - BTC crash?
Hype and fud for BTC seems omnipresent these days, from serious technical analysis, to plain wishful thinking, i.e. lacking any ratio.
But where is the crash that everyone is talking about, pro or contra?
As often, the truth might be found somewhere in between.
Follow me down the rabbit hole if you care to entertain my train of thoughts and technical analysis.
From what I can see, BTC is about to complete it 5th Elliot Wave, after which we are pretty likely to recede towards 1050-1100 (if the usual panic in that process doesn't escalate). The technical angle seems to confirm this.
Short term trendlines converge neatly (virtually in perfect fashion) towards the longterm upper channel line, all of which coincide with an important fib circle level. We could hence anticipate a potential breaking point for a subsequent regression along the first Elliot correction wave around the end of the month (April 28-30 is my guesstimate here) and around a price level of 1400-1450.
This is, however to be seen as part of a development we could kind of expect given the long term trend that seems to accelerate (see comment and macro chart below). BTC near the 1800-1900 by the end of 2017 could turn out to be a very likely scenario.
TL;DR:
BTC likely to correct from 1400ish towards about 1050-1100 at the end of April, in accordance with long term trend, then strongly bullish towards end of 2017.
Disclaimer:
I have a position in BTC (ultra-long).
But where is the crash that everyone is talking about, pro or contra?
As often, the truth might be found somewhere in between.
Follow me down the rabbit hole if you care to entertain my train of thoughts and technical analysis.
From what I can see, BTC is about to complete it 5th Elliot Wave, after which we are pretty likely to recede towards 1050-1100 (if the usual panic in that process doesn't escalate). The technical angle seems to confirm this.
Short term trendlines converge neatly (virtually in perfect fashion) towards the longterm upper channel line, all of which coincide with an important fib circle level. We could hence anticipate a potential breaking point for a subsequent regression along the first Elliot correction wave around the end of the month (April 28-30 is my guesstimate here) and around a price level of 1400-1450.
This is, however to be seen as part of a development we could kind of expect given the long term trend that seems to accelerate (see comment and macro chart below). BTC near the 1800-1900 by the end of 2017 could turn out to be a very likely scenario.
TL;DR:
BTC likely to correct from 1400ish towards about 1050-1100 at the end of April, in accordance with long term trend, then strongly bullish towards end of 2017.
Disclaimer:
I have a position in BTC (ultra-long).
Comment:
Macro view of this idea below:
Comment:
BTC defies expectation of correction in line with long-term trendline, overshoots substantially. Struggling at the 161 fib line here atm.
But it seems the tug of war for a retrace might have begun in earnest, but BTC keeps surprising. Watching the 161.8 line closely.
But it seems the tug of war for a retrace might have begun in earnest, but BTC keeps surprising. Watching the 161.8 line closely.
Comment:
Comment:
Purple curve I drew on BTC chart (see above) on 23 April predicted quite precisely $2600 for beginning of July. I shouldn't have deleted this chart, had to align a ruler on the screen, LMAO. :)
