🚀 Bitcoin ~ FMOC Bull RIP or Bear DIP?!

Investors in both the traditional and progressive markets are awaiting the FOMC press conference at 2 pm EST tomorrow May 5th. The cryptoverse has been holding up much better than the traditional indexes like the NASDAQ for example. Price is going to do one of three things in reaction to the FOMC announcement: Dip, Rip, or push sideways.

Taking things into context “bear market” is defined in the traditional space by a greater than 20% dip. In the short 13 year progressive market history BTC has seen 80% dips. From the highs price has already pulled back: BTC 50.7% , ETH 55.7%, & LTC 69.6%. Sentiment is uber bearish in both traditional & progressive markets with everyone “looking in the same bearish direction”. If the extreme fiscal irresponsibility of global governments, record global hyperinflation in government issued fiat currencies, & war between Russia and Ukraine have not pushed price to monthly lower lows what is it going to take?! Is it likely the FOMC announcement of the US fractional rate hikes & more inflation talk going to create enough fear and panic to push price to weekly and monthly lower lows? Or is more likely the highly anticipated information is already priced in and the announcement will mark a local low?

It doesn’t really matter which way the price breaks as long as you are prepared for both the bullish and bearish scenarios. The immediate direction of price during the press conference will likely be short lived. It would not be surprising to see price reverse the “reactionary” direction and head the opposite direction Thursday and Friday. Strength Traders do not have opinions but if I had to bet $1 I would bet a reactionary bear dip holding the weekly higher low leading to a local low and then a bounce seeking a weekly lower high.

Cautious Bulls are prepared for the falling wedge style candlestick pattern to break bearish seeking a weekly higher low vs 34.3K. STS traders would be anticipating an 88.6% realization at 35.9K on a candle closing basis. This would flush the tertiary 3D higher low liquidity. Once the low is set price would then be seeking a weekly lower high vs 48.2K. Once the weekly lower high is set we will have a lot more information due to the size of the bounce and then reevaluate on the pullback as to it being more likely or less likely if price will continue to weekly higher highs or weekly lower lows.

Confident bears are prepared for a waterfall dump scenario seeking the weekly higher low at 35.3K to exit their short positions. Patient bears are waiting for the local low to be set and are scouting the anticipated weekly lower high vs 48.2K to enter swing short positions.

The main TA problem for both Bulls and Bears at the moment is RSI levels are in no man’s land between 32 to 63.5%, which is neither overbought nor oversold, on the macro and midterm timeframes such as the daily and 4h.

For me personally (make your own trade decisions) in the event of a bear dip I am prepared to market add to my hedge shorts to balance my long to short ratios looking to exit on capitulatory 5m volume wick lows. In the event of a bull rip anticipating weekly lower highs I will hold my 20% short hedges red and patiently wait for midterm timeframe signals to average down my longs. When I begin to scale out of my longs is when I will then average up my hedge shorts. Since we are lacking price discovery with clear relative strength signals my trades decisions will likely be heavily based on price action and DBSI.

I wish all my “frenemies” good luck trading tomorrow!

CHART KEY:
Monthly levels in Orange
Weekly levels in Yellow marked with Yellow arrows
3D higher lows in White marked with White Arrows
88.6% retracement level in Purple marked with Purple Arrow