Let's begin by looking at some the most relevant price levels for $BTC on the monthly; each blue line represents a price level that was in play for at least six months.
Then we'll look at the highest volume candles and how price reacted to those levels.
Then look at the fibonacci relation.
And finally just unravel into a general rant about game theory.
(stay with me)
The first big volume candle comes in Jan 2015 with the price falling from the $400 line which had been acting as support. Then the next big volume month is in November when the price moves up to test $400 as resistance. Then another big volume spike In June 16 as that resistance is broken.
The next big volume comes as the price tests the $4000 level. Increasing volume occurs as the price breaks $6000 and $7000 during the big bull run of late 2017. The price stays around the psychological 6k, 7k, 8k, and 9k levels for six months during the period from late 2017 through mid 2018 with declining volume until the price breaks the 6k resistance. A slight volume spike occurs as price breaks the $4000 level in late 2018.
If we put a fib retracement from the bottom price line to the top one we see that btc recently found support right in the golden zone. We also see some correlation with other fib levels and major price action.
So there was a lot of Bitcoin bought and sold at those levels. It's probable that a lot of Bitcoin will be bought and sold at those levels again. Volume is the major element to be watching here.
And we wait and see, keep an eye on these levels, and look for other signs of confluence to help influence our opinion.
Is the price going to go up? Is it going to go down? Nobody knows. No. Fucking. Body. Anyone that claims they know is either a fool or a liar with an agenda. Trading is about probabilities and managing risk. I think it's probable that volume increases as we hit previous resistance and support levels. How the price reacts at those levels is the unknown variable so we set up risk to reward situations with predefined targets and stop losses and bet on the probable.
Trading is a lot like poker in many ways. They're both games of betting on probabilities with short term variance overcome by a consistent approach employing proper risk to reward. They're both zero sum games where an edge is gained by having a psychological advantage over your opponents. The player that studies the most, refines their system most optimally, and acts consistently based on logic and reason rather than emotion is likely to be the long term winner. Having a preset biased view that is inflexible is a sure fire road to failure in both games. Inversely; constantly adjusting to new information and reacting accordingly is required to be a winner.
Then we'll look at the highest volume candles and how price reacted to those levels.
Then look at the fibonacci relation.
And finally just unravel into a general rant about game theory.
(stay with me)
The first big volume candle comes in Jan 2015 with the price falling from the $400 line which had been acting as support. Then the next big volume month is in November when the price moves up to test $400 as resistance. Then another big volume spike In June 16 as that resistance is broken.
The next big volume comes as the price tests the $4000 level. Increasing volume occurs as the price breaks $6000 and $7000 during the big bull run of late 2017. The price stays around the psychological 6k, 7k, 8k, and 9k levels for six months during the period from late 2017 through mid 2018 with declining volume until the price breaks the 6k resistance. A slight volume spike occurs as price breaks the $4000 level in late 2018.
If we put a fib retracement from the bottom price line to the top one we see that btc recently found support right in the golden zone. We also see some correlation with other fib levels and major price action.
So there was a lot of Bitcoin bought and sold at those levels. It's probable that a lot of Bitcoin will be bought and sold at those levels again. Volume is the major element to be watching here.
And we wait and see, keep an eye on these levels, and look for other signs of confluence to help influence our opinion.
Is the price going to go up? Is it going to go down? Nobody knows. No. Fucking. Body. Anyone that claims they know is either a fool or a liar with an agenda. Trading is about probabilities and managing risk. I think it's probable that volume increases as we hit previous resistance and support levels. How the price reacts at those levels is the unknown variable so we set up risk to reward situations with predefined targets and stop losses and bet on the probable.
Trading is a lot like poker in many ways. They're both games of betting on probabilities with short term variance overcome by a consistent approach employing proper risk to reward. They're both zero sum games where an edge is gained by having a psychological advantage over your opponents. The player that studies the most, refines their system most optimally, and acts consistently based on logic and reason rather than emotion is likely to be the long term winner. Having a preset biased view that is inflexible is a sure fire road to failure in both games. Inversely; constantly adjusting to new information and reacting accordingly is required to be a winner.