Wave 5 is extending. The forecasted bottom is ~ 64, ~ 7/5/13

MTGOX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
405 5
As some on the vitcoin talk forum know, I had forecast for an 86 low in btc recently. When it was hit, I thought that the bear market was over wave 5 had ended. I bought the low with joy.

But shortly thereafter I saw that the market action over the next few hours were 3s, not 5. Which meant the down move was not yet finished. I sold btc again with but a very small profit.

Looking at the wave count, and seeing 5 waves after the obvious wave 4, I now believe that wave 5 is extending. We re now in wave 2, which should end in a few more hours.

Wave 3,4,and 5 should finish by 7/6 at the latest. So the bear market is almost over.

Wave 3 will end ~ 75, and wave 5 will end ~ 64. If 64 breaks, it will go all the way to 48, but I think 64 will hold.
I am now of the opinion that wave probably just ended at 95. My earlier premise that wave 5 was extending was likely incorrect, because the 3 wave structure that just ended was too large to be a minor wave. (It went from 65 -> at least 95) So, it is more likely to have been a wave 4 of 5.
JimFred JimFred
That should read: " I am now of the opinion that wave 4 probably just ended at 95. "
JimFred JimFred
Of course, wave 4 went all the waqy to 104. It closed below the max of 100.44 though that would have violated the rules though. So it looks like wave 5 has likely begun at 104.
You called it
The wave I was projecting to end ~ 75 actually ended at 72. And the next support is not ~64, but ~ 67.
FYI - I no longer think 67 will hold. I think it will more likely head down to lower levels ~ 48-50 I will post an updated chart after the 67 support is hit.
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