profghibli

BTCUSD Shorts at ATH, Longs/Shorts ratio at all time low

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
This is BitFinex shorts/longs total amount in BTC at the bottom
Shorts at an all time high, shorts to longs ratio is at an all time high as well, by far.
Maybe just a bit of spook is needed to make the shorters shit their pants I think.
But I think this weak news (the rejected ETFs to be reviewed) are not enough to spook bears. Really, a decent price pump, THEN followed by bull news might start the short squeeze.

Too early to call entries/stops/exits.

A possible way to play this would be to get into a small but long-term position when the price exits this range of 6900 - 6200, going long if the price breaks 7000 and short of price breaks 6200. BUT I really don't like that setup. I will stay on the sideline for now.
Comment: In hindsight would have been a great long trade. Now the shorts value has dropped by a lot and is actually slightly below longs value now.
Comment: Lesson to learn here - be bold when such rare opportunities present themselves.

Comments

Thanks for your advice its much appreciated, been thinking the same to sit by the sidelines for now.
+1 Reply
How many whole bit-coins does a short contract represent? How many short contracts are open? Does the number of bit-coin shorted exceed the number of bit-coin in existence? When you short gold, silver, oil, etc. there is always more coming to market. There is only a fixed number of bit-coin that will ever exist. How do they square that fact with reality?
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profghibli BitcoinBearSlayer
@BitcoinBearSlayer, on BitFinex it's not called "contracts" like on BitMEX for example. Here, the number represents total borrow + sold bitcoins. (So 38904 shorter bitcoins, 26550 longed bitcoins). I.E. Short contract if you wish to call it that way represents a whole bitcoin. On BitMEX however, a short/long contract usually is quoted as $1 worth of BTC. I do not have access to the total number of shorts + longs on BitMEX however.
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