The history repeat is true until it isn't. And I would say we're arrived a point where we can't repeat the last year.
Before I try to explain, with my like an idiot sounding english ^^, I will mention this short chart.
In there I chart the merian of our . The last rises is was't broken and we drive on the red line like it was a route to moon. But is it that? Maybe, but we have broke it what should give us a confirm that the history of price rallys stop repeating here.
The growing timeframe we're in a downtrend mode even give us a next indices. It was from 67 , to 86 to 130d.
Some other points why we can't repeat it in a endless loop.
-the mining reward won't halfed this year.
- ca . 3600 coins were mined every day
-bitcoin is a really interesting project. and it's already all over the media. Which means ppl who are interested in buying bitoins are mostly already in. To get the "rest" in it would need something like massadoptoin
-bitcoin as a currency lost these days lots of trust while ghash. io get 51% (also this was all over the media)
After some of you see this line I draw a critical I decide to draw a second chart showing even the same but from a different view.
Here it is:
- why would you say people who are interested are already in? In the group of people I know, people are just getting in.
- this 51% isn't that big of a deal, it solves itself. Also ghash has no interest in double spending
Of course history can't repeat forever, but there is still lots of adoption on it's way. More and more businesses are accepting bitcoin, more and more people use it for normal transactions.
In my opinion we're still in the same large uptrend
Your point with the mining power halfed is correct. But it halfed at the end of 2012 (it was nearly there where I bought my first bitcoins :-)) and effected by this the comming uptrend.
"- why would you say people who are interested are already in? In the group of people I know, people are just getting in. "
Mostly I mean. And if you should be right, the phase should soon be over. Bitcoin was such a media hype and everyone who is someone who would invest in before the massadoption (if it ever comes) heard about bitcoin some time ago the first time. Maybe even for 2 years. If this person will invest and havn't already it will be really soon or it won't happen. ....soon it will be a little bit more silence about bitcoin.
" - this 51% isn't that big of a deal, it solves itself. Also ghash has no interest in double spending "
That is actually a really big thing. Ghash.io isn't interesed in double spending? Maybe not, because they will loose money on it, but they have already tested double spending...
And the point "it solves itself", I guess you mean the lower hashrate ghash.io has now? The problem is that it means not that their is any problem solved. First they are still to big and crashed the idea of decentralized money, the secound point is that the "Unknown" miner have get more hashrate. So what if Ghash.io just take some of their own miner away from their own pool to mine standalone? They will still have the same mining power, maybe even more because of new miner will join there pool.
And the problem with all this isn't even the double spending. They can control the code. Generate whitelists, gain the complete mining reward etc.
(just try to have a look what could happen in maybe 10 years.)
By all this, bitcoin lost a lot's of trust. Even while the Associated Press have wrote an article which is copyied and translated by a lot's of media, just because it's the AP....
"Of course history can't repeat forever, but there is still lots of adoption on it's way. More and more businesses are accepting bitcoin, more and more people use it for normal transactions. "
Yes, here we got the same view. :-)
The "badnews bars" are still in effect concerning the trend. But why should this be more in effect then a trendline more based on the price average. In connection with the growing timeframe of our downtrend should also give us a sign.
Why does the price still not broke when it hit's my trendline?
As you see, the price crashed after crossing my trendline to ca. 350$.
Why not crashing more?
There will be many points to say. But one of them is, that also the trendline you talk about is in effect. But while finish our wave we could cross it.
Because your comment is relative silmliar to one I have already answered, I would find it great if you could check my comment above. It's my reply to the comment of @levi.grandt. Would be glad to discuss with you about.