bullish and bearish scenarios - most likely bearish

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
having a lot of fun with this new adx indicator...

bullish scenario: either 270 or 289 in the next 2-4 days, the adx indicator suggests 289 like back in january when the price was going down, but the fisher indicator suggests 270 like back in march... i just looked for a similar pattern on the adx indicator and the huge fall down at the beginning of the year was what i found... so i took the last 3-4 days and compared it to the 3-4 days before the big move down last time, and 289 would be where it's going if it's proportionally similar to the last time... but it could also match up with what it did in march which should put the price at about 270...

bearish scenario: november last year, the pattern suggests this could be the top and that it could plummet from here... and unfortunately the itchi cloud and the fisher both match up with it as well ... if it plays out like it did in november, then the bottom would be 170... i'm going to say it will be the final bottom... got that by dividing the first run up (the thin rectangle to the left, into the total fall down, which was a little more than twice as large... since this recent move up was smaller, i kept the proportions in tact and got a bottom of 170, which looks realistic when considering the bottom in january

here's an explanation on how to use the adx /dmi indicator... basically, when the red wavy line is over the white horizontal line, that's when it's safe to make a trade, the market is officially "trending".. if the blue wiggly line is above the silver wiggly line when that happens, it's trending up... if the silver line is above the blue line, it's trending down...

as far as the ichi settings, a tutorial i watched some time ago suggested doubling all the settings... here it is


if the bearish scenario matches up then it should drop to about 215 then range between 220 and 228 for 10 days before the big dump down to 170... it will stop at 197, go up to about 215 then plummet to 170 (that should take a few days)...
i agree, btc been trying to avoid a catastrophic visit to 210-215 but I do not think it will be able to escape