Some TA indicates we hit the bottom at $3100. Similarities to 2014/15 bottom:
a) Price dropped about 50% (not that important, but relevant)
b) Price very close the 200 weekly MA
c) Indicators like at levels similar to 2014/15 bottom. My own indicator also indicating bottom.
d) Historical technical (assuming we actually bottomed). See orange dash line @ 34.588 & the "Basically Identical" arrows.
To put things in context:
1) Given that a), b), c), d) were good buy signals &
2) We had a local technical &
3) The experts did not think we'd drop bellow $4800 (if we dropped from 6k)
Given all that, the overall buy was weak, scattered, late and not indicative of capitulation .
Couple of other things:
a) It seems that buyers "expected" the second drop from $4.2k to $3.1k as the second buy peak on the indicator(s) was higher than the first. Very unusual in the context of capitulation.
b) Price landed the 200 weekly MA way too perfectly. Not a wick below the 200 weekly MA on the 4H, 12H, 1D or 2D charts. Seems like a controlled (or cautious) landing. Very suspicious.
c) We stayed at the bottom for nearly 4 days. Historically that's not how bottoms occur.
d) Too obvious a place to bottom.
This was not capitulation. I expect more sideways (above $3100 to perhaps trap some bulls), then lower. We might see the 200 weekly MA act as long term resistance.