Seasonal Trends

SEASONAL TRENDS
Time to trade and time to rest
BTCUSD

There are not only days or weeks in the market with a high probability of working out trading patterns. But there are also seasons and months in which trade acquires its own specific characteristics, which may either offer favorable market conditions or be completely uninviting to trade.
Seasonal trends are not a magic pill. It is always necessary to analyze each asset class separately.
But if your analysis is consistent with the seasonal trend, then you will be trading the most probabilistic patterns.

December - January
During the final and initial months of the calendar year, it is common for markets to experience consolidation, resulting in less favorable price behavior for the formation of trading patterns. This trend is primarily influenced by the busy holiday schedule and bank holidays, which lead to a reduction in market liquidity.

Many traders choose to take vacations during these periods or dedicate more time to observing and testing new trading patterns. As a result, market activity may slow down, and the formation of distinct trading patterns becomes less prominent.

It is important for traders to be aware of these market dynamics and adjust their strategies accordingly during these times of consolidation.

February - March - April
Since February, the markets have transitioned out of consolidations and have started to show movement and the formation of trends, which provide more favorable price action for traders. This shift can be attributed to the entry of smart capital into the market in significant volumes.

During these periods, traders have the opportunity to witness the emergence of optimal and highly probable trading models. The increased market activity and participation of smart capital contribute to clearer price trends and patterns, allowing traders to potentially capitalize on profitable trading opportunities. It is important for traders to closely monitor market conditions during these periods and utilise appropriate strategies to take advantage of the favorable trading models that arise.

May - June - July - August
The saying "Sell in May and go away" has some justification as it relates to the behavior of smart capital in taking profits on their positions before the summer period of low volatility. This phenomenon can result in the formation of a downward trend and subsequent consolidation in both stock and cryptocurrency markets during what is commonly referred to as the "summer depression."
During this time, many professional traders, particularly in August, take vacations as market activity and trading opportunities may be limited due to decreased liquidity and overall subdued market conditions.
It is worth noting that while this saying has been observed in the past, market dynamics can vary, and it is important for traders to adapt their strategies and remain vigilant to potential opportunities even during periods of lower market activity.

September - October - November
In the last quarter of the year, the markets typically experience a resurgence in activity. The stock market often sees a rally, with an increase in buying interest and positive market sentiment. On the other hand, the foreign exchange market tends to exhibit more favorable trading conditions, characterised by increased volatility and opportunities for profitable trading patterns.
During this period, many professional traders actively participate in the markets, taking advantage of the improved trading conditions and seeking to capitalize on potential profit opportunities. The renewed market activity marks the beginning of a new cycle, where market trends and dynamics may undergo significant changes.

I repeat once again that you need to take into account the stage of the cycle and not rely only on seasonality + take into account the macro situation in the world and the news background
I wish you all good trading
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✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes.

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