JamieHolmes
Long

March towards $400...?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
521 1 3
$271----$250 >> implied future support (Friday).

If price manages to stay above the cloud and the base line, bullish outlook. Price currently testing the base line, acting as resistance. A close above will provide a good entry into a long, as this indicates bullish momentum, strong bullish signal; A close above $267.73 at the close of the current candle (starting at 20:00 26.01.2015) will indicate bullish momentum.

Central bank action with the ECB purchasing €60 billion in assets per month, reductions in base interest rates in Canada, India and Denmark will serve to increase value of BTC and makes its more likely that Fed will become hawkish and devalue the Dollar. This week will see central banks action from the Fed and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The pressure is on the other commodity currency countries (i.e Australia, New Zealand) to further ease policy. The outlook for China also remains accommodative, as growth will slow over the coming years and inflationary pressures will ease.

Gold             has been making new highs and it seems like Bitcoin is following this trend. The launch of US regulated coinbase exchange has added credibility to Bitcoin and is another driver behind the recent price increase. Expect to see market maturity in 2015 onwards and this will contribute to stable price growth.

After retracing from highs in excess of $300 today, the price has made a higher low at $260.00. However, the relative strength index has made a lower low - known as hidden bullish divergence . This indicates underlying strength in the market and the price is well placed to make new highs ~$336.97 and ~$363.13. Good opportunity at current price levels to get in on the current upward trend. Both price and lagging line are above the cloud and cloud is green - upward trend in place at 4 hour timeframe.

Support and resistances indicated by Ichimoku:
-horizontal green lines ( Support & resistance level)
-and the Ichimoku cloud (currently green span above the red span, so the cloud is providing support area )

$400 is a psychological resistance level .

A close above $267.70 at the end of the week, i.e. Sunday, will provide a weak bullish signal at the weekly timeframe (i.e. price close above the conversion line, indicates relatively higher probability it will continue higher, minor resistance turns into minor support).

A switch in momentum favoring Bulls will be seen with a weekly close above $374.70, implying an even higher probability of an upward movement extending to the $400+ region. My analysis indicates a high probability of a move towards $400+ between the 4th and 9th of February and the formation of a stronger uptrend at the daily timeframe during this period.

Short term support at $254.67 and ~$252 - conversion line at daily timeframe . If the trendline with smaller gradient is broken, then the outlook will be neutral~bearish. Higher probability of an extended downward move if the price manages to break below the cloud. Weak resistance is formed for the last day of January, indicated by the thin cloud in the graph. If the price maintains above the trendline with the smaller gradient at this date, then bullish outlook remains intact.
Definitely. Macro trends like the Eurozone meltdown and the S and P hitting its top are all going to make BTC and gold safe havens.
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