bitcoinbobby

BTC Market Update: Dead Cat bounce or real rally?

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
This is the daily chart , which means each one of these candles takes 24 hours to close. This is the best timeframe to confirm if a trend is intact or not. You can go shorter time frames to get insight, but I look at the daily to form my trading ideas.

The blue descending trend line has finally been broken (see green candle highlighted) in what seems like forever! A couple things that are significant about the current territory. The EMA 200 ( exponential moving average ) has always been a support line for Bitcoin             during the incredible rally beginning of 2017. In this bear market it is acting as a heavy resistance line. You'll notice the green 24-hour candle is sitting right on top of it a we just punched through. This territory also interestingly falls right at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the market high of 19.5k. Yes, Fib patters exist in nature and in the charts. We look at Fib zones as possible support or resistance levels depending if you are in a downtrend or uptrend.

I'm not day trading here so we have to wait for this candle to close to confirm if the trend is real. This is the difficult part as you may see the price go up, but like I said before this could just be a dead cat bounce. There are plenty of resistance areas from above and buy volumes are not through the roof. It's better to wait and review the charts again later tonight before positioning any trades.

Other positives. You can see RSI is still trending up on the daily and the MACD is finally crossing over as well.

Conclusion: Again, I will book a BUY trade if the green candle ends the day above the blue trend line . If it doesn't then the order is canceled. In this downtrend we should aim to take 50% profits near the 61.8% Fibonacci level, which is near the top red downward trend line .


-BitcoinBobby

Love your insight. Thanks, Bobby.
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bitcoinbobby Velardecollin
@Velardecollin, thanks. I need to get back to publishing ideas again. This old one was spot on!
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