200 USD New target? Analysis of the coming price action

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Very simple chart with basic analysis. It's what seems to work best for me. There's a very predictable pattern in Bitcoin . Others have pointed it out and it's very easy to spot. Basically, Bitcoin loves heavy moves upon break of a resistance/ support level after a period of consolidation. We can easily see very large moves in price after these breakouts. We're currently approaching another one in the coming week. We can also see even larger moves in price when a down trend is broken.

So based on previous support/resistance levels and Fibonacci, it feels like we have the following targets.

Long target around 370 should the downtrend line break. About a 20-25 % move in price. I would go for this trade if the daily MA50 is pierced with heavy volume . Stop loss a few dollars before the breakout level and then moving upwards.
Short target around 200. 1.618 fib as well as a psychological number. About 15-20 % move in price. I will go for this trade if the 250 support level is broken with heavy volume .

My guess is that we have a few days of consolidation left before BTC is forced to make a move. Going to set up some alarms and go read a book. Interesting times ahead. :)