Early adopters & investors accumulated coins at prices $0.01-$10 and pumped the price all the way to $1000.
Now the 'Return to normal' phase is nearing completion with a on 3d.
Attempt to break $500 / 3000yuan massive resistance will not succeed and the trend is deemed to reverse.
Bitcoin has internal issues with it's design that were neglected, see https://medium.com/@octskyward/the-resolution-of-the-bitcoin-experiment-dabb30201f7#.cc7vgjkfj
Bad news will be used to justify popping the bubble.
Due to it's the capitulation phase will bring lots of joy to all bears and good trading opportunities.
Double digits in $ are almost certain to be seen in such scenario.
With no bubble in recent memory.
On a halving year.
Only if quantum computers come out for $1000 that can crack bitcoin cryptography in 5 minutes.
This 'bitcoin has fail because miners won't play ball' is simply illogical. Miners don't make money unless bitcoin is worth something. Do you really think they're going to drive their golden goose off a cliff. It's just a butt hurt developer who has taken his ball and gone home because things aren't changing quickly enough for him. They will change, when there is financial incentive to change them. Welcome to the real world. Bitcoin has simply out grown his idealism.
All the mining investments that never predicted even sub $200 prices will die during despair phase.
Halving is always priced in.
Price is still in the big 'bubble wedge', When it leaves despair begins with real shakeouts.
Then we might see another $1000 bubble. Or not.
I would agree that halving is priced in already, that's what the last run up from 220 to 440 was caused by. But halving will still initiate a bubble due to publicity and those reached by the publicity believing it hasn't been priced in. It caused the last bubble, and history is a pretty solid indicator.
This is nearing to an end right now, H&S you will see next few days pretty cleary.
Mike Hearn posted his declaration at the time when market was ready for a dump (double top was reached and was already falling albeit slowly)