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Bitcoin Bubble

BTCE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
1205 10 13
Bitcoin is a classic bubble.
Early adopters & investors accumulated coins at prices $0.01-$10 and pumped the price all the way to $1000.

Now the 'Return to normal' phase is nearing completion with a H&S on 3d.
Attempt to break $500 / 3000yuan massive resistance will not succeed and the trend is deemed to reverse.
Bitcoin has internal issues with it's design that were neglected, see https://medium.com/@octskyward/the-resolution-of-the-bitcoin-experiment-dabb30201f7#.cc7vgjkfj
Bad news will be used to justify popping the bubble.

Due to it's volatility the capitulation phase will bring lots of joy to all bears and good trading opportunities.
Double digits in $ are almost certain to be seen in such scenario.

Related Ideas

btc_joe
9 months ago
Bitcoin is not "a classic bubble" ...but it does experience bubbles in price. It has had around 4 major ones though out it's history. There is a huge difference here. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbZ8zDpX2Mg I do enjoy the story you are painting though.
+1 Reply
dump btc_joe
9 months ago
+1 for the video. Interesting times coming, that's for sure.
Reply
zeratul600
9 months ago
let me guess, you are shorting and trying to cause a self fulfilled prophecy ? your H&S is really trying too hard, also mike hearn declaration did drove the market down, due to speculators going away, and if the btc was a regulated security he will be in jail for insider trading practice, also your bubble is not implemented properly, the real bubble was the 1000 price and the going back to normal was 2015
Reply
dump zeratul600
9 months ago
2015 was all about trying to break this resistance at 3000-3100yuan after rebound from January 900yuan flash crash.
This is nearing to an end right now, H&S you will see next few days pretty cleary.

Mike Hearn posted his declaration at the time when market was ready for a dump (double top was reached and was already falling albeit slowly)

+1 Reply
DanRoth
9 months ago
http://fiatleak.com/
Reply
dangolbery
9 months ago
That sort of a crash.
With no bubble in recent memory.
On a halving year.

Only if quantum computers come out for $1000 that can crack bitcoin cryptography in 5 minutes.

This 'bitcoin has fail because miners won't play ball' is simply illogical. Miners don't make money unless bitcoin is worth something. Do you really think they're going to drive their golden goose off a cliff. It's just a butt hurt developer who has taken his ball and gone home because things aren't changing quickly enough for him. They will change, when there is financial incentive to change them. Welcome to the real world. Bitcoin has simply out grown his idealism.
Reply
dump dangolbery
9 months ago
Big miners are among those investors keeping the prices at these levels. They will dive their golden goose to get rid of competition that cannot afford to mine at $100 prices.

All the mining investments that never predicted even sub $200 prices will die during despair phase.

Halving is always priced in.

Price is still in the big 'bubble wedge', When it leaves despair begins with real shakeouts.

Then we might see another $1000 bubble. Or not.
Reply
dangolbery dump
9 months ago
I disagree with the miners diving it on purpose to remove competition. For control sure that makes sense, but for profit it wouldn't work. The decrease in price will offset the extra network share you gain so you are making about the same profit. Profit is a function of your share of the network and the price. If you aren't increasing your hashing power as the price increases and vice versa (to maintain a fixed % profit per bitcoin mined) then you're losing money.

I would agree that halving is priced in already, that's what the last run up from 220 to 440 was caused by. But halving will still initiate a bubble due to publicity and those reached by the publicity believing it hasn't been priced in. It caused the last bubble, and history is a pretty solid indicator.

+1 Reply
CryptOrca
9 months ago
lol
Reply
Ant0ni0
8 months ago
from 450 to 150 fall bull trap?
Reply
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