A quick update on this exchange-based BTCUSD .
Essentially no change in directional bias, forecast or target: The initial conditions that supported our directional bias and forecast on February 10th remain unchanged, regardless of any manipulative hands, interruptive hacking or other fundamental events that may have occurred in the interim.
Just as in this Litecoin forecast (see LTCUSD chart replay here: https://www.tradingview.com/v/R5QGZThQ/), our proprietary strategy and forecasting methodology are independent of current price action, on-going fundamental news, or any other interim events. We also do not believe that the exchange data of one BTCUSD is any more accurate over that of others (i.e.: BTC-e vs. vs. MtGox), at least not to the extent that traders have attempted to demonstrate. Yes, variations will exist at the smaller timeframe levels ( , M5, M15, H1), but we like to look at H4 and above, which are institutional-level point of views, where variations tend to decrease. So, send us your evidence to the contrary if you have to, but our analyses do not depend on the elements upon which you may base your differencing opinion against other exchanges. In other words, it really makes no difference in the way we predict, forecast and define our targets.
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The unique perspective I offer to traders has to do with an asset that seems to be stuck in range, or that has a lot of fundamental promises at a time when I detect bearish technical potentials instead.
To give you a concrete example, in LTCUSD (see trade here with its replay option: https://www.tradingview.com/v/NQP6aiNs/), I provided a continuous analysis that kept a bearish tone, and the target remained the same since January 25th. Regardless of the conflicting emotions in the discussion forums and fundamental commotions in the news arenas, we kept a single bullish target as a likely point of reversal at 23.357, and maintained a bearish target at 15.565. Within five 4-hour candles from our call, the bullish target was hit dead on, while the bearish target remained "out of range", or "unlikely", or whatever descriptive we kept on receiving from traders.
Our point is not to prove you or anyone wrong, but to remain WITH the market, regardless of how any feels about it. The market cannot reciprocate the love I have for it, nor can I transfer the hate some others might have about it. The system we use is reliable most of the time, precise most of the time, and right most of the time, but it is NOT the market itself. It only tries to remain with the market like a feeble friend remains close to another friend during recess time in school so as not to get beaten by the many, random aleatories of life.
A lot has gone into understand and designing our proprietary strategy, and my place here at TradingView as a Moderator is not to lure you into some commercial end, but perhaps to wow you by making you appreciate that there are a lot of opinions about trends, support/resistance, and there are a lot of ways to analyze price action, but in total, there is only one and one way to trade, which is to erase oneself and remain with the market - In my personal view, a trader who earns money by chance does not deserve his earning, but one who earns by learning and understanding how to be and remain with the market has reached the highest earning possible, not because it will make him richer, but because it will make him a non-victim of a ruthless way of life, which trading really is. And that my friend has to be earned through first understanding who you are.
Okay, may be too much tangent talk on behavior and personal perception, but after so many years of trading, most of the ones still standing have learn one thing about themselves (who they are as traders), and now strives to understand what the market is. In my view, the market is who you were the second you formed an opinion about it, and it stops to be the moment you change the plan that first let you take a position.
When we offer a predictive analysis and define a forecast, we leave that trade alone and only change the stop-losses. The trade dies with either the forecast being met or with the stop-loss being met, hopefully either one being in some degree of profit.
So, it matters not how far the targets are as much as how close we can remain to the market as a vehicle. Once the destination is set, we sit in the same car seat, use cautionary stop-loss seat belts to lessen the eventual adverse impacts, and we enjoy the landscape through the backseat window.