Update: Still Bearish; Target Unchanged | $BTCUSD #Bitcoin

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
2250 17 8

A quick update on this Bitstamp exchange-based BTCUSD             .

Essentially no change in directional bias, forecast or target: The initial conditions that supported our directional bias and forecast on February 10th remain unchanged, regardless of any manipulative hands, interruptive hacking or other fundamental events that may have occurred in the interim.

Just as in this Litecoin forecast (see LTCUSD             chart replay here: https://www.tradingview.com/v/R5QGZThQ/), our proprietary strategy and forecasting methodology are independent of current price action, on-going fundamental news, or any other interim events. We also do not believe that the exchange data of one BTCUSD             is any more accurate over that of others (i.e.: BTC-e vs. Bitstamp vs. MtGox), at least not to the extent that traders have attempted to demonstrate. Yes, variations will exist at the smaller timeframe levels ( M1 , M5, M15, H1), but we like to look at H4 and above, which are institutional-level point of views, where variations tend to decrease. So, send us your evidence to the contrary if you have to, but our analyses do not depend on the elements upon which you may base your differencing opinion against other exchanges. In other words, it really makes no difference in the way we predict, forecast and define our targets.


David Alcindor
TradingView MOD
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
Beautifully put, Dave. I've been excited to see if and how your analysis would be affected by the recent events and I'm happy to see that you've held firm. It seems there will always be a rabid viral-news-consuming population in play in the bitcoin space, at while it remains so illiquid. Great technical and predictive analysis is supposed to filter these events out in defining strong positions -- not factor them in. Many could learn much from this.

Thanks again.
What is your time frame?
@ matthew.ambrosia - H4 is the timeframe is display most charts, as it allows traders time and perspective. Plus, the targets I generate are several pips/points away, so a moderate timeframe helps me display the relevant price action relative to the target - Thank you for asking. Cheers, David.
"send us your evidence to the contrary if you have to" - but, what is your evidence of a bearish trend? I just only see two line in your chart and explanation of how expirenced you are. The rules of this website say that you should show "why" do you think we are going up or down. Right now your chart say nothing for me.
ambrosia PRO ShortThePlanet
He has a target TG-1 = $449.89.... so down
ShortThePlanet ShortThePlanet
because of triangle? or what? I don't see any explanation of this target.
ambrosia PRO ShortThePlanet
Right... no clear explanation but he seems to be right consistantly
Without any explanations this target is just a random line for me.
4xForecaster PRO ShortThePlanet
#anatolio - I appreciate your inquiry.

1 - The "evidence to the contrary" pertains to the quality of data among the exchanges (BTC-e, Bitstamp, ... etc) that allow bitcoin traders to take position in the face of uncertainties, hacking scandals and technical glitches. The evidence I was offering is that our directional biases, targets and supports have remained unshaken despite all the perceived noise and chaos which should have impacted our predictive analyses and forecasts. At the end, it did not adversely impact or cause us to revise our analyses.

You are welcome to look into the history of our posts to review some basic technical principles we use to support our analyses and forecasts. The main principles we use are trendlines, Shark patterns and 5-0 patterns, all corroborating the proprietary methodology that generated the directional biases and targets in the first place. Not revealing our methods does not remove your ability to verify on your own how we get to chose the direction and reversal levels.

If you believe that we do not fulfill your expectation or mislead you into confusion, I recommend that your report our dubious activities to the Founders@TradingView.com.. Our participation is on a voluntary basis without any commercial end. While we provide extensive written analyses on Forex, Bitcoin, indices, and stocks in a well formatted and developed way, there is only so much we can do to satisfy our mutual passion for market studies.

I hope this answers some of your complaints.


David Alcindor
TradingView Moderator
Head Trader at 4xQuad, LLC
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
@anatolio - Following are some explanation of technical methods in the reach of most traders:

1 - EURCAD - This explains a concept of "momental Channel Interaction" we like to use in verify once our prop strat generates a direction and target.
More Channel Interplay: Lines, Channels, Slopes and Gann #CAD

2 - EURCAD - Here, we explained at an earlier time a simpler version of the channels:
EURCAD-H4: Channel Interplay & Price Action Anticipation

3 - AUDCAD - In this one, we went into excruciating details explaining how we perceive a probable bullish channel vs. bearish channel conversion, and how this can offer the trader a probable directional confirmation. If you use the cool REPLAY button, you will see how price quit the bearish channels and broke above the upper channel border, leading to a bullish outlook despite the recent relief unwinding in price (our unpublished target here is 0.96742, based on prop strategy, but also using a H4 and Daily chart with interactive channels).

Also, in addition to all the esoteric methodology which we have developed, I recommend that you look into written works from Constance Brown (especially this book:http://www.amazon.com/Technical-Analysis-Trading-Professional-Edition/dp/007175914X), to find out that there are many more market-nuts such as ourselves who are doing crazy stuff and continue to discover very interesting hidden geometries and occult patterns. To our credit, we have several unpublished patterns that we use in addition to our predictive analyses.

Our workflow goes as follows:

1 - Predictive analyses = Direction
2 - Forecasting = Target


3 - Basic pattern confirmation (Shark, 5-0 are our preferred beasts)


4 - Channels interplay confirmation of direction


5 - Fundamentals support our direction


We share.


So true David, Market will always find the news it needs to justify it's movements.
This played out beautifully! Where are we moving next?
I don't think this play is done, yet :).
How so? The target of 449 is not even close to being hit. The other two lines are just prior short term support and resistance so of course they would be hit eventually.
BuyOnPurple PRO liquid-illusions
4xForecaster PRO liquid-illusions
@liquid-illusions - The forecasts I give are not based on structures. Here, the defined structures are to alert the trader about potential push-back at structural levels.

The unique perspective I offer to traders has to do with an asset that seems to be stuck in range, or that has a lot of fundamental promises at a time when I detect bearish technical potentials instead.

To give you a concrete example, in LTCUSD (see trade here with its replay option: https://www.tradingview.com/v/NQP6aiNs/), I provided a continuous analysis that kept a bearish tone, and the target remained the same since January 25th. Regardless of the conflicting emotions in the discussion forums and fundamental commotions in the news arenas, we kept a single bullish target as a likely point of reversal at 23.357, and maintained a bearish target at 15.565. Within five 4-hour candles from our call, the bullish target was hit dead on, while the bearish target remained "out of range", or "unlikely", or whatever descriptive we kept on receiving from traders.

Our point is not to prove you or anyone wrong, but to remain WITH the market, regardless of how any feels about it. The market cannot reciprocate the love I have for it, nor can I transfer the hate some others might have about it. The system we use is reliable most of the time, precise most of the time, and right most of the time, but it is NOT the market itself. It only tries to remain with the market like a feeble friend remains close to another friend during recess time in school so as not to get beaten by the many, random aleatories of life.

A lot has gone into understand and designing our proprietary strategy, and my place here at TradingView as a Moderator is not to lure you into some commercial end, but perhaps to wow you by making you appreciate that there are a lot of opinions about trends, support/resistance, and there are a lot of ways to analyze price action, but in total, there is only one and one way to trade, which is to erase oneself and remain with the market - In my personal view, a trader who earns money by chance does not deserve his earning, but one who earns by learning and understanding how to be and remain with the market has reached the highest earning possible, not because it will make him richer, but because it will make him a non-victim of a ruthless way of life, which trading really is. And that my friend has to be earned through first understanding who you are.

Okay, may be too much tangent talk on behavior and personal perception, but after so many years of trading, most of the ones still standing have learn one thing about themselves (who they are as traders), and now strives to understand what the market is. In my view, the market is who you were the second you formed an opinion about it, and it stops to be the moment you change the plan that first let you take a position.

When we offer a predictive analysis and define a forecast, we leave that trade alone and only change the stop-losses. The trade dies with either the forecast being met or with the stop-loss being met, hopefully either one being in some degree of profit.

So, it matters not how far the targets are as much as how close we can remain to the market as a vehicle. Once the destination is set, we sit in the same car seat, use cautionary stop-loss seat belts to lessen the eventual adverse impacts, and we enjoy the landscape through the backseat window.


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