I have come to the conclusion that my earlier prognostications that the bear market ended ~88 last week were premature. I now believe that selloff was a wave 3, and the action since then has been a wave 4.
This suggests that the final wave 5 of the bear market is due. If it follows the expected path, it might take us all the back to ~ 48.
I've been wrong before, so of course I am prepared to change my thinking quickly if the market shows me I am wrong!