BTCUSD Corrective Count (H4)

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Based on the reverse divergence on the D1 chart it's more likely for BTCUSD             to move higher. With that assumption the upside target would be a minimum of $429.80 with higher prices being likely. Once the WC completes expect a final leg down that targets $320. If it's still bearish I expect $260 to be tested.
Trade active: Going long with stops below the market. See updated imagine in the attached note.
Order cancelled: Cancelled the order since price is below a critical level. I'll re-enter longs above 381. The risk is the lowest to enter here however. It still presents an excellent RR trade.
Comment: Moving nicely towards target...
Trade closed: target reached: Expecting a correction from this level. Since it's 90% to the target it's better to exit now.
Comment: My bullish target is still $451. Looking for a correction to add longs.
Comment: We are either at a top or about to have a correction. If this isn't the top then expect $451 before any possibility of a reversal.
Trade active: Shorted at the top, posted late but I indicated before $451 was my entry for shorts. Exit 1/2 at profit, exiting the rest @ $420. This will either be the high or we have one more leg higher. Will be building shorts from here on in. If it's bearish $320 is the minimum target. Good luck.
Trade closed: target reached: Exited remaining 1/2. Still much more downside potential however there's a likely leg higher coming. It's unclear if the expansion wave will make new highs. I'll be looking to enter larger positions on this rally.

Entered longs with target 1 at the last swing high (minimum target) and the channel high.
Here's the bearish scenario... Looking at the charts they both seem reasonable. The bearish scenario should invalidate with a break of the red "(b)" high of my original chart. Because of the R/R ratios involved you can actually do an arbitrage hedge where you buy and sell an equal position with stops at levels that invalidate the other. Downside targets for the bearish scenario are 331.98 and 294.64.
kosai19 kosai19

Sorry, wrong chart... the last one was the EURUSD 240 breakout... Here's the real one.

We should at be at the bottom in our corrective scenario, however the count does allow for a downside extension. If prices reaches the green lines in the chart it offers an even better level to get in. D1 charts support a rise and H4 has some strong bullish signs. I'm already long small positions and will add for the trendline break of the third chart.
nice chart mate :)
+1 Reply
kosai19 Piet.Hein
Thank you =)
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