MoonTrader
Long

BTCUSD developing a healthy bull trend

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
Bitcoin is at a huge juncture at $300 and it looks very close to breaking through. Plenty of room for upside and once it cracks that $300 mark, it's on like donkey kong. Depending on the risk you can handle, you can pick a stop-loss at various levels. I'm personally keeping a pretty tight stop-loss below the breakout zone on a 2h scale because I believe this is going to happen very quickly once it breaks.

When the price pops, we will see a quick run to the upper $300s before a retrace. If and when this occurs, I plan to play both sides of it. We can see volume supporting this trend on a daily time frame, but also on shorter time frames as well, with steadily increasing volume accompanying steadily increasing price. What's more, the speed of the trend seems to be increasing, although we obviously haven't reached climax levels yet, which would be indicated by huge volume and very fast upward price action. This would also be a good indicator that it's time to fold our longs and begin shorting.

Good luck!
well that bullish trend is not healthy at all... It's just a pump and dump scheme
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This very well could be a pullback. I don't know why you don't think it's healthy.
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GaliX MoonTrader
it's way too fast, Bitcoin is not a hyper liquid market like Forex is. There is always a point were most people are long in these pump situations to >300$ created by all the social media we use. I am pretty sure most guys which are into bitcoin were long when were pumping. That's not healthy at all. Nobody is fomo buying Bitcoin at a higher price to hodl it when it dumps. Everybody longing bitcoin wants to see profits at some point that's why we always dump so hard when we pump the shit out of Bitcoin or Litecoin as well.


If we would have a nice oscillating trend which has pull backs here and then... it can be a week up 8% and the next week down 5% this would be healthy in my opinion.

Bitcoin is going nowhere if there are only profit oriented people pumping it over 30% in one week and then dump it 30% down again or even further...

I hope people stop going full bulltards when we go up again. I think it is unlikely we will see another pump like we had from 100$ to 1200$.

here is my plan for now ... Everybody called me a retard when I published it back then...

Take Profits and look for possible short signals.
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GaliX GaliX
What I want to say in the end... a healthy market need bulls and bears at the same time. A market with >90% bulls is nothing else then a pump and dump.

That's also the reason why bitcoin went up to 1200$ and then dumped to where it started from 166$....
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I agree. The trend was way too fast when it pumped, but if the trend were to reverse from here, the whole thing would not be very fast, so I definitely think it's possible. Of course, something like this cannot last as a true investment, but the thing is, we don't know how long it can last. It may not have another pump like it did before, but there's plenty of room for a sizeable bull market within that range.
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GaliX MoonTrader
I just watched the most recent daily FX video

--> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DRO2SvyuKT0

He explains these rapid moves on the S&P 500 and what V turns on tops/bottoms can develop to and why..

I think this fits very well for BTC as well if you watched the video. If you have fast gains short term it's not caused by longterm investors investing in a trend it's in the end just a pump and dump...

If bitcoin really wants to grow it has to shift it's sentiment
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Hi Moontrader, I wanted to ask you as you seem to have a slightly different strategy to others...what amount of the recent uptrend would you attribute to Greece news? As a UK resident I've gotten so tired of reading Greece news that has just dragged and dragged on, I suspect it is the usual smoke screen for more serious news....which I'm suspecting may/or may have been the Chinese economy, not the Greek one.
If Greece has carried any of the btc uptrend, then the bail-in news would surely be bearish. Question is, is it relevant at all??
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MoonTrader rubenthin
I think the news is relevant, but at the same time, I don't usually take it into account in my trading. Thing is, you still don't know what effect a certain story is going to have because the technicals often determine what affect it will have. There are tons of news stories that could affect price and it only takes the right technicals to make any certain story either very bullish or very bearish or just meh...
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Hi MoonTrader
really well done, I fully agree and would like to add some details with EW-Analysis. I don't see us below 293 befor first the upwards move has completed ... and then we'll see a retracement. I think the chances are good, that this upwards move takes us directly to numbers above 320 ... but we will see.

@oleg.golubovich: I don't agree with your proposal that we're in the beginning of wave (iv)! I think that the chart you referenced has three issues:
a) wave III should never be the smallest one
b) wave IV should not overlap wave I
c) wave I it is difficult to trace the subwaves (should have 12345 substructure)

So I come to a different conclusion: We're in the midst of wave 5 developing ... and the next 2 days should give us information whether it will be a rather weak wave 5 (not as long as wave 3) or whether it is really bullish and directly explodes towards 340 or something like this. After that I see chances for a bigger retracement.
snapshot


To comment my chart: Very interesting is that wave 3 still seemed to be on track of a rising wedge (which would have opened the possibilty to for a long lasting decline like DanV pointed out) ... but then with wave 4 (see red arrow) the bears missed the chance to push down towards 260 or better lower (wave 4 = c truncated/failed) ... and the answer to that was that bullish explosion especially in China.

To sum this up: The most interesting point in my analysis was the game around 270-275. I would say it really played out well for the bulls and this should make for a larger move > so the resistance now around 300 shouldn't be as strong, it's maybe not much more than a number.

This all fits really well with fundamentals I would say: Stock market crashing in China? Questions about the Euro, unclear perspective in Dow and Dax but gold not picking up ...

And finally there is an important strategic point: A lot of chinese shorts sitting in the 1800-2000 region were kicked out with the squeeze to 2300 and the rest of chinese people keeping shorts in the 2300-2500 region will rather sooner than later consider to cover their positions to not get squeezed as well.
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MoonTrader little_papillon
Thanks, little_papillon. Funny, though, I didn't reference EW once in my analysis...
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