BTCUSD Week 10 - What are we watching?

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
We're still flat BTCUSD from previous week, after having closed our longs with a nice 10-15% profit. For the coming week 10 i'm expecting chop if BTCUSD keeps moving up, meaning i'll most likely be sideline. In case it back tests lower levels again, i think the buy opportunity might only occur end of next week or the week thereafter. So basically i'm expecting a fairly uninteresting week ahead (though i hope i'm wrong!!)

Some points and remarks anyhow:
- A breakout towards 13 k levels is not really something i want to trade and potentially will make BTCUSD uninteresting for another week or two, as previous price action might make things too choppy for my taste. By choppy i mean there will be no clear trading pattern and price will be "all over the place".
- I'de much rather see another back test of the 7-8k levels minimum and i'll be looking to buy 30% in case price reaches this range. Exact entry will follow in an update.
- The only scenario i might be scalping long is a strong runaway towards 13 k that could potentially run all the way to 16k, but i have strong doubts that will happen next week (again, i hope i'm wrong here too :))

What are your thoughts?

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Comment: Potential pennant/ascending triangle:

Comment: BTCUSD: I've added a buy limit of 30% @ 7474.9, which is the price meeting target of the Adam & Adam Double Top (A&A DT). Additionally, i'm closely watching for a slightly higher bottom in the green area and might enter a manual buy if the strongly bounces here.

Comment: Looks like some events/news accelerated things for BTCUSD :coffee:
Comment: My bad....

Comment: I would be happy to see a daily doji close, as another full bodied red candle would form a three black crows, which signals weakness and a higher probability of maybe a lower low sub 5.9k levels.

Comment: I'm scaling down my buy to 20%, because weekly looks like at best we bottom next week and a potential lower low than Feb might be a potential target to flush the longs.

Comment: So the buy we have in place is waiting for a repeat dump and pump to form a double bottom and a rally up to 13-16k.
The pivot here is the 5.9k low of Feb. If we set a lower low, the downside risk increases, if it doesn't print a lower low, this could potentially be the basis for a rally until May (sell in May, then go away).

I am new, so I apologize in advance for my naiveté. I see earlier you are looking to add to your long in the 7-8k range. Ignoring that comment and looking at the "possible pennant" I would think I should add at the lower 10k range (the little yellow oval) if that line holds). My question is does the pennant change your outlook on the likeliness of seeing sub 8k, if so why? How do these pennants play out statistically, or is it a watch and see situation?
+1 Reply
TomPip ThankUKind
@ThankUKind, Unlike false and lazy assumptions, i welcome any trading related questions! When to add if the pennant/ascending triangle is a matter of knowing the pattern and knowing your own risk appetite. If it turns out price does move in a pennant/ascending triangle the coming days, it means price will compress and the most conventional entry is a breakout above the resistance, and not the support, as price has a higher probability of failing there (breakouts up can also fail aka fake outs).

To answer your question concretely: if price moves into a pennant, it's a pennant in an uptrend which has a bull bias, so yes, it'll change my outlook and i will most likely post another setup/entry.
as far as i understand you are all in or out and dont have a position trade long...
TomPip ErsozSozer
@ErsozSozer, You understanding is completely false. I wish people would put more efforts in their comments... Next.
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