BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar

1hour chart is a good balance between the slow but reliability of the daily and the fast pace of the 5min trade.

Charting Theory says, opn             a fib reverse you short on the 61.8%. Which just happed on Finex.
Based on human emotion, everyoner thought we're gonna go down, so everyone was short. Since everyone was short there wasnt anyone else to short. As soon as price stopped moving around the 310 area, people started to close their shorts,we had a small bounce and then we went down to 302.

Remember if noobs are thinking that we're going down, and everyone is short, the market means its oversold greatly so what do you think happens in an oversold market. We go back up to retest a higher time frame.

Also PRO TIP: Always chart from the large interval to the small interval, not the other way around.
How does one use the NOOB-O-METER ?!
Lord_Ashdrake pumapunko
Its very complicated but on a easy scale, you have to do the opposite of how you feel. After a huge increase, do you feel bullish and strong towards up yes? past performance is strong going up, indicators are in the green, etc etc. Then you have to do the total opposite and short because while all the noobs continue to buy, they will only buy the SHORTS from people that keep the price at a constant level. This works very well most of the times unless another whale or big player says he wants to do more and then he calls all the sharks shorts up.

Basically its like a food chain

Plankton (this is everyone that is noob) gets eaten by fish ( this is everyone else which at least can smell trends) which in turn gets eaten by big fish (which is people who have some small bankroll) which get eaten by sharks (which are people with large bankrolls that can make small changes in the market which get eaten by whales (which we all know who they are) which in turn gets eaten by killer whales (which is Tim Draper for ex)

+1 Reply
sammantic Lord_Ashdrake
But you are saying to short it? Based on the theory describe above you should be long no?
Lord_Ashdrake sammantic
No, you look at a longer time interval, so far on the 1h it looks like a short, but you should have shorted higher around 334-336, regardless you short and you have a stop loss above 336.

Risk vs Reward
you risk it going $8 up or $16 or more down, thats a 2:1 R/W that i'm personally comfortable with.
+2 Reply
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