Fontas
Short

Short term Bitcoin Short, due to cumulative volume exhaustion

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
5416 32 44
Position size maximum 20% equity . Leverage max 5x for this volatility . Current price 681USD, stop loss 705USD. Targets are 590, 565, 534, 511, 480. Liquidation of 15%, 20%, 30%, 25%, 10% at these positions respectively.

EXIT: Futures premium reach -1%, close all short position.
Fisher reach under 1st bar and is heading up, close all short position.
OBV reach 472000, close 50% of positions. OBV reach 461500, close all positions.

==

Reasoning. 1. Futures premium is at 6%, an overbought value, and we are not even close to making new high at 780. First sign of overbullish sentiment proportional to price movement.

2. Fisher transform , timeframe for rally is past already. When fisher is under middle bar there is potential for rally. Fisher is above 5th bar and is going down, dropping from here is very likely for at least 48 hours.

3. On Balance Volume is at TOPPING levels. Price is $100 lower from top. OBV is at same level as top. That means all coins dumped have already been rebought, and price settled lower. The market has no more buying power according to cumulative volume counts.

Remember that fundamentals don't change in 2 weeks. the entirety of the short term market is SPECULATION. I am here to map it.



Trade active: Good start to the trade thus far. Be careful futures premium is dropping faster than anticipated. We might have a premature end to this down move if it reaches -1%.
Trade active: Still great trade. Fut premium is safe again. Continue
Comment: Cum volume, fut premium, fisher and other indicators are still in overbought territory. There is little room for upwards move, there is lot of room for downwards move. However time window for this trade is running out. If market stays stagnant this trade is closed and capital will be better allocated to COST long.
Comment: Since underlying conditions are same as when trade opened, extension of trade timeline by 1 month.
Comment: Closed trade immediately. Tiny profit. Because Futures premium only at 1% today. No longer overbought. Looking for a good entry for a long now.
Trade closed manually
Comment:
Lower highs indicative of Bitcoin downtrend.


New parameters for short.
Comment:
Lower highs indicative of Bitcoin downtrend.


Updated short. New updated parameters
Comment: ^ link: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD3M/ 1zBx5rAU-Lower-highs-indicative-of-Bitcoin-downtrend/

(remove spaces). Have to do this or tradingview turns link into chart
Thank you for sharing these informations Fontas !
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andrecomputero andrecomputero
awesome trending prediction. For me it's still very nice since crypto is very volatile. Keep posting your ideas fontas...!
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we are heading for a double bottom hard to say where exactly maybe $550-590.
If we fail to drop lower than $620 support will be the best we get.
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djthistle01 PRO BitcoinGuru
but what if we go to 940 first? :P
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Fontas BitcoinGuru
480 and 380 are possible bottoms if this is correction of larger move from 200.
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You can spend couple of years learning to trade without the guarantee of being successful oooorrrr you can follow fontas and get money. Great call.
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Fontas Cabron
If you spend a few hours each day at the library reading books like Technical Analysis 9th Edition and Turtle Trader, within 3 months you will know enough about entries, position sizing, stop loss, time loss, exits, risk control, indicators to be better equipped than 90% of retail traders out there.

It's amazing how many people play with real money following forum posts of bad trendlines.
+3 Reply
Could you perhaps reccomend a couple of books that you read that you think are worth reading?
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didn't move, did it? Still, seeing those targets?
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Fontas kfarnan
Position will be closed if it does not move before the time-stoploss on chart.
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Fontas Fontas
moving
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kfarnan Fontas
good call man. Never doubted.
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Garbage.
+1 Reply
kfarnan zoskia
looks on point to me
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"COST long."?
+1 Reply
BitcoinGuru IvanLabrie
we broke out from the triangle on bitfinex and we just did on China charts (i know you dont use that) but expect a move up / long to retest $770+
+2 Reply
KnightDK BitcoinGuru
Did 1D broken up too?
+1 Reply
BitcoinGuru KnightDK
Yup and were riding the 1D middle of the Bollinger Band now as support at $660-663 on Bitfinex. looking good
+1 Reply
Fontas BitcoinGuru
no
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3D stoch rsi crossed and 12H BB squeeze looks like your not watching ;)
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Fontas IvanLabrie
If this trade stagnant, then allocate capital to other trades. Like longing Costco
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Galvin Fontas
I see an ascending triangle or wedge (what ever you want to call it) on the chart been going on for weeks. That pops will be epic. So many people short right now.
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Nice use of fisher transform. Try extending the period from 14 to 65 or greater to reveal some longer-term patterns.
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You are great, I hope you update the chart
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Can't short BTC ;P
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Think too much time has passed for any real dumping. Just looking at the chart above. Its leveled off. Also bitcoin loves to retest previous highs then do the big dump. IMO if it reaches 700 again its going higher.
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i told you
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I guess you could have waited a couple more hours! Don't blame you though... I am afraid we are headed into a crypto bear market. We'll see what happens.
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awesome trade, bad execution.

why did you bail out even though you should have stayed in according to your own rules?
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Lower highs indicative of Bitcoin downtrend.


New parameters for short.
+1 Reply
is this correct link? looks like to old chart? sorry If I am wrong I am only new user here.. Thank you for your great ideas
+3 Reply
reattle perpetualX
+1 Reply