Fontas
Short

Short term Bitcoin Short, due to cumulative volume exhaustion

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
5311 32 44
6 months ago
Position size maximum 20% equity . Leverage max 5x for this volatility. Current price 681USD, stop loss 705USD. Targets are 590, 565, 534, 511, 480. Liquidation of 15%, 20%, 30%, 25%, 10% at these positions respectively.

EXIT: Futures premium reach -1%, close all short position.
Fisher reach under 1st bar and is heading up, close all short position.
OBV reach 472000, close 50% of positions. OBV reach 461500, close all positions.

==

Reasoning. 1. Futures premium is at 6%, an overbought value, and we are not even close to making new high at 780. First sign of overbullish sentiment proportional to price movement.

2. Fisher transform, timeframe for rally is past already. When fisher is under middle bar there is potential for rally. Fisher is above 5th bar and is going down, dropping from here is very likely for at least 48 hours.

3. On Balance Volume is at TOPPING levels. Price is $100 lower from top. OBV is at same level as top. That means all coins dumped have already been rebought, and price settled lower. The market has no more buying power according to cumulative volume counts.

Remember that fundamentals don't change in 2 weeks. the entirety of the short term market is SPECULATION. I am here to map it.



6 months ago
Trade active: Good start to the trade thus far. Be careful futures premium is dropping faster than anticipated. We might have a premature end to this down move if it reaches -1%.
6 months ago
Trade active: Still great trade. Fut premium is safe again. Continue
6 months ago
Comment: Cum volume, fut premium, fisher and other indicators are still in overbought territory. There is little room for upwards move, there is lot of room for downwards move. However time window for this trade is running out. If market stays stagnant this trade is closed and capital will be better allocated to COST long.
5 months ago
Comment: Since underlying conditions are same as when trade opened, extension of trade timeline by 1 month.
5 months ago
Comment: Closed trade immediately. Tiny profit. Because Futures premium only at 1% today. No longer overbought. Looking for a good entry for a long now.
5 months ago
Trade closed manually
5 months ago
Comment:
Lower highs indicative of Bitcoin downtrend.


New parameters for short.
a month ago
Comment:
Lower highs indicative of Bitcoin downtrend.


Updated short. New updated parameters
a month ago
Comment: ^ link: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD3M/ 1zBx5rAU-Lower-highs-indicative-of-Bitcoin-downtrend/

(remove spaces). Have to do this or tradingview turns link into chart

Related Ideas

andrecomputero
6 months ago
Thank you for sharing these informations Fontas !
Reply
andrecomputero andrecomputero
5 months ago
awesome trending prediction. For me it's still very nice since crypto is very volatile. Keep posting your ideas fontas...!
Reply
BuyBitcoin.WS
6 months ago
we are heading for a double bottom hard to say where exactly maybe $550-590.
If we fail to drop lower than $620 support will be the best we get.
Reply
djthistle01 PRO BuyBitcoin.WS
6 months ago
but what if we go to 940 first? :P
Reply
Fontas BuyBitcoin.WS
6 months ago
480 and 380 are possible bottoms if this is correction of larger move from 200.
Reply
Cabron PRO
6 months ago
You can spend couple of years learning to trade without the guarantee of being successful oooorrrr you can follow fontas and get money. Great call.
Reply
Fontas Cabron
6 months ago
If you spend a few hours each day at the library reading books like Technical Analysis 9th Edition and Turtle Trader, within 3 months you will know enough about entries, position sizing, stop loss, time loss, exits, risk control, indicators to be better equipped than 90% of retail traders out there.

It's amazing how many people play with real money following forum posts of bad trendlines.
+3 Reply
TheAnalDisaster Fontas
3 months ago
Could you perhaps reccomend a couple of books that you read that you think are worth reading?
Reply
kfarnan
6 months ago
didn't move, did it? Still, seeing those targets?
Reply
Fontas kfarnan
6 months ago
Position will be closed if it does not move before the time-stoploss on chart.
Reply
Fontas Fontas
6 months ago
moving
Reply
kfarnan Fontas
6 months ago
good call man. Never doubted.
Reply
zoskia
6 months ago
Garbage.
+1 Reply
kfarnan zoskia
6 months ago
looks on point to me
Reply
IvanLabrie
6 months ago
"COST long."?
+1 Reply
BuyBitcoin.WS IvanLabrie
6 months ago
we broke out from the triangle on bitfinex and we just did on China charts (i know you dont use that) but expect a move up / long to retest $770+
+2 Reply
KnightDK BuyBitcoin.WS
6 months ago
Did 1D broken up too?
+1 Reply
BuyBitcoin.WS KnightDK
6 months ago
Yup and were riding the 1D middle of the Bollinger Band now as support at $660-663 on Bitfinex. looking good
+1 Reply
Fontas BuyBitcoin.WS
6 months ago
no
Reply
BuyBitcoin.WS Fontas
6 months ago
3D stoch rsi crossed and 12H BB squeeze looks like your not watching ;)
Reply
Fontas IvanLabrie
6 months ago
If this trade stagnant, then allocate capital to other trades. Like longing Costco
Reply
Galvin Fontas
6 months ago
I see an ascending triangle or wedge (what ever you want to call it) on the chart been going on for weeks. That pops will be epic. So many people short right now.
Reply
Nice use of fisher transform. Try extending the period from 14 to 65 or greater to reveal some longer-term patterns.
Reply
xiaoxian
5 months ago
You are great, I hope you update the chart
Reply
wagap
5 months ago
Can't short BTC ;P
Reply
Galvin
5 months ago
Think too much time has passed for any real dumping. Just looking at the chart above. Its leveled off. Also bitcoin loves to retest previous highs then do the big dump. IMO if it reaches 700 again its going higher.
Reply
rexlomax
5 months ago
i told you
Reply
JohanCastellanos
5 months ago
I guess you could have waited a couple more hours! Don't blame you though... I am afraid we are headed into a crypto bear market. We'll see what happens.
Reply
viajero
5 months ago
awesome trade, bad execution.

why did you bail out even though you should have stayed in according to your own rules?
Reply
Fontas
5 months ago
Lower highs indicative of Bitcoin downtrend.


New parameters for short.
+1 Reply
is this correct link? looks like to old chart? sorry If I am wrong I am only new user here.. Thank you for your great ideas
+3 Reply
reattle perpetualX
a month ago
+1 Reply
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