The bears have been feeding on BTC for the past couple of days. I know it seems a lot longer than that. In the TV public chats people think it is the end of the world. But hey, it's only been 2 days.
BTC has been trading in an upward channel since April 1st and this channel gives us a good indication of the extreme movements we can expect from BTC. (I am using a logarithmic chart.) We are still in the channel so there really is nothing to panic about. Sure we can count the number of lifeboats and the number of passengers on board "Good Ship Bitcoin", but we don't have to camp out in the lifeboat just yet. If the price drops below the bottom of the channel, then you can don your life vest and pick out a good seat for your escape.
The daily indicators are somewhat bearish and they don't indicate the sky is falling so please tell them in chat everything will be ok and the sun will come up tomorrow. (If you want to do this, please don't read any further).
Spoiler alert. Ok, I lied. The sky could be falling next month.
If you take a look at the bottom indicator (NVT) you will see it is no longer red. This implies a correction is imminent. On a daily chart the correction will be minor and we may already be in it. Nothing to fret about.
On the weekly chart the NVT indicator is still red so a large correction is still at least a week or more away. (The price normally corrects when the NVT indicator switches from red to its normal color.)
On the monthly chart, the NVT indicator has been red for two months and is no longer red for July. Oops!
I assume it is no longer red because we are only 1/3 the way through the month of July. I expect it will turn red before the end of July (I hope).
If you expand the monthly chart to see other months when the NVT went from red to the normal color, it was followed by a major correction the following month and it lasted one or two months. The 3 corrections were between 73% and 80%, so yes, I'd call that major. A correction of this size from the 14k top would mean we would fall below 4k which is quite extreme.
Now keep in mind that the monthly NVT may have switched from red to its normal color because we are still in early July. If NVT hasn't switched back to red by July 31st, then I would definitely prepare for a correction.
If the price drops below the channel, I would jump into the lifeboat and even short BTC especially if NVT wasn't red on the monthly chart.
This is what I would do. This is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence when buying or selling cryptos.
BTC has been trading in an upward channel since April 1st and this channel gives us a good indication of the extreme movements we can expect from BTC. (I am using a logarithmic chart.) We are still in the channel so there really is nothing to panic about. Sure we can count the number of lifeboats and the number of passengers on board "Good Ship Bitcoin", but we don't have to camp out in the lifeboat just yet. If the price drops below the bottom of the channel, then you can don your life vest and pick out a good seat for your escape.
The daily indicators are somewhat bearish and they don't indicate the sky is falling so please tell them in chat everything will be ok and the sun will come up tomorrow. (If you want to do this, please don't read any further).
Spoiler alert. Ok, I lied. The sky could be falling next month.
If you take a look at the bottom indicator (NVT) you will see it is no longer red. This implies a correction is imminent. On a daily chart the correction will be minor and we may already be in it. Nothing to fret about.
On the weekly chart the NVT indicator is still red so a large correction is still at least a week or more away. (The price normally corrects when the NVT indicator switches from red to its normal color.)
On the monthly chart, the NVT indicator has been red for two months and is no longer red for July. Oops!
I assume it is no longer red because we are only 1/3 the way through the month of July. I expect it will turn red before the end of July (I hope).
If you expand the monthly chart to see other months when the NVT went from red to the normal color, it was followed by a major correction the following month and it lasted one or two months. The 3 corrections were between 73% and 80%, so yes, I'd call that major. A correction of this size from the 14k top would mean we would fall below 4k which is quite extreme.
Now keep in mind that the monthly NVT may have switched from red to its normal color because we are still in early July. If NVT hasn't switched back to red by July 31st, then I would definitely prepare for a correction.
If the price drops below the channel, I would jump into the lifeboat and even short BTC especially if NVT wasn't red on the monthly chart.
This is what I would do. This is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence when buying or selling cryptos.