In its early development, the Predictive/Forecasting Model knew its target, but was a poor timing method ... Terrible whiplash before the target finally got hit ... Sigh ... Coming from a long way:
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1 - Technical analysis does not work - This camp will accept absolute "coincidences" of market actions
2 - Technical analysis works - This camp will accept absolute teleological causes of market actions
Looking back at the chart, as well as other exchanges at the time when their respective prices stood around $600-$800, the Predictive/Forecasting Model I was using at the time defined abysmal targets, all of which have been reached.
Looking back, MTGox behaved exactly the same in terms of its final position as any other exchanges. The interim moves, interim fundamentals and interim news may have been different between all of these exchanges, but the Model does not look at price per se - Price is tertiary, last and irrelevant to the Model I was using at the time.
Whether one believes that the results are coincidental or purposeful, relative or absolute, is not what I seek to answer, and not what the Model needs to exist in its own right.
Another "manipulated" market is one found in Forex, the very one in which central banks artificial interventions, government manipulations and other unforeseen social events still do not seem to impart much differences in the predictive analyses and forecasts defined by the Model weeks or years ahead.
The most important aspect of this type of trading research is not that I should prove the coincidental believers right, or the nerd technicians wrong, but that I engage into a predicting/forecasting system which finds a way to predict and forecast that is consistent over time and over exchanges. Here, MTGox acted consistent to the predictive analysis and forecast.
Coincidental? Purposeful? ... It is not for me to say. But I'd say that this Model works across all financial markets (See recent performance using the #CROWSignalService hashtag on Twitter, or google "4xForecaster + Target hit" for older archives, where I have used an older version of the Model).