BTCUSD - #bitcoin - Target = 270.61

MTGOX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
381 3 7
BTCUSD             - #bitcoin - Target = 270.61
Comment: Memory Lane:

In its early development, the Predictive/Forecasting Model knew its target, but was a poor timing method ... Terrible whiplash before the target finally got hit ... Sigh ... Coming from a long way:


David Alcindor
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
Sorry sir, but how can you update the chart of an exchange who were dying and hacked ?

Altought It's been accurate on a "normal" market exchange behavior like BITSTAMP:BTCUSD.

+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO J.Livermore
Good morning @J.Livermore - There are two absolute positions one could take:

1 - Technical analysis does not work - This camp will accept absolute "coincidences" of market actions
2 - Technical analysis works - This camp will accept absolute teleological causes of market actions

Looking back at the chart, as well as other exchanges at the time when their respective prices stood around $600-$800, the Predictive/Forecasting Model I was using at the time defined abysmal targets, all of which have been reached.

Looking back, MTGox behaved exactly the same in terms of its final position as any other exchanges. The interim moves, interim fundamentals and interim news may have been different between all of these exchanges, but the Model does not look at price per se - Price is tertiary, last and irrelevant to the Model I was using at the time.

Whether one believes that the results are coincidental or purposeful, relative or absolute, is not what I seek to answer, and not what the Model needs to exist in its own right.

Another "manipulated" market is one found in Forex, the very one in which central banks artificial interventions, government manipulations and other unforeseen social events still do not seem to impart much differences in the predictive analyses and forecasts defined by the Model weeks or years ahead.

The most important aspect of this type of trading research is not that I should prove the coincidental believers right, or the nerd technicians wrong, but that I engage into a predicting/forecasting system which finds a way to predict and forecast that is consistent over time and over exchanges. Here, MTGox acted consistent to the predictive analysis and forecast.

Coincidental? Purposeful? ... It is not for me to say. But I'd say that this Model works across all financial markets (See recent performance using the #CROWSignalService hashtag on Twitter, or google "4xForecaster + Target hit" for older archives, where I have used an older version of the Model).

David Alcindor

+1 Reply
dub00 PRO 4xForecaster
Very good. But more to the point, why do we appear to be talking about events that were years ago here? The present action is quite appealing..
+1 Reply
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