Previous analysis/position: Strong support at $6,800 and falling $1,250/15.21% over the last week led me to believe we should get a bounce to retest $7,250 - $7,500. Remain short ETH:USD from $450.
Patterns: Wyckoff distribution with spring indicates that $6,800 is about to breakdown. 1h - 2h bear flags indicate that as well.
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,784 - $6,884 | weak R: $7,016 | strong R: $7,250 | $7,500 | $7,750
BTCUSDSHORTS: Back above 21,500. Currently testing 50 and 128 day MA’s. | 60% long: 40% short
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12= -6.41% | 26 = -5.68%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = Currently acting as support | 128 = -8.13%
FIB’s: 0.236 = $5,920 | 0.382 = $8,496
Candlestick analysis: If current daily candle trades below $6,880 it would be a bearish engulfing. 12h dragonfly and hammer (on top of 128 MA).
Ichimoku Cloud: Wicks continue to piece the bottom of the daily cloud, but we still have not closed outside of it. Tenkan-Sen still diverging above the Kijun-Sen when I would expect them to be posturing for a bearish crossover. 12h cloud is bullish and currently acting as support.
TD’ Sequential: R-2 < R1 on 3d | Daily R-7 | 12h R-7
Visible Range: Point of control over last 24h is $7,015 | POC over last 5 days is $7,551 with a low volume node between $7,000 and $7,325 | POC over last month is $7,451 | POC over last year is $8,258
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = -2.02% | 24h = -0.57% | 1w = -14.89% | 2w = -16.54% | 1m + +6.65%
Bollinger Bands: Testing bottom band on daily while the band starts to angle downward. Below MA on weekly. Testing MA on 3d for support.
Trendline: N/A
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: UP = $8,284 | DOWN = $6,068
On Balance Volume: Moving down faster than the price, indicates smart money getting out.
ADX: 1d - 1w are bearish w/o any trend present.
Chaikin Money Flow: Dumped from 0.2 to < 0.05 in the last week. In agreeance with OBV.
RSI (30 setting): 1d and 1w are < 50
Stoch: %K is finally crossing below %D on weekly. This is establishing a lower high. Daily is cooled off and back in oversold zone.
Summary: 1h Wyckoff distribution (w spring) and/or the bear flag are indicating that $6,800 should breakdown before we get a bounce to $7,250 - $7,500. Personally I am having a hard time believing that we will breakdown the major level of support after being oversold and still think we will get a bounce. The 12h reversal candles above the 128 MA would agree with me.
The 3d TD’ Sequential and the daily cloud are potentially disagreeing with me. The TD’ is providing an entry with a Red 2 below a Red 1. If we close a daily candle below the cloud then it would also be suggestive of an entry.
I would pass on the TD’ entry due to being on a daily Red 7. I would pass on the kumo breakdown due to the bullish TK' Cross.
If not in a position then I would wait patiently for a bounce and would be prepared to sell the shit out of it.
Thanks for reading!
Patterns: Wyckoff distribution with spring indicates that $6,800 is about to breakdown. 1h - 2h bear flags indicate that as well.
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,784 - $6,884 | weak R: $7,016 | strong R: $7,250 | $7,500 | $7,750
BTCUSDSHORTS: Back above 21,500. Currently testing 50 and 128 day MA’s. | 60% long: 40% short
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12= -6.41% | 26 = -5.68%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = Currently acting as support | 128 = -8.13%
FIB’s: 0.236 = $5,920 | 0.382 = $8,496
Candlestick analysis: If current daily candle trades below $6,880 it would be a bearish engulfing. 12h dragonfly and hammer (on top of 128 MA).
Ichimoku Cloud: Wicks continue to piece the bottom of the daily cloud, but we still have not closed outside of it. Tenkan-Sen still diverging above the Kijun-Sen when I would expect them to be posturing for a bearish crossover. 12h cloud is bullish and currently acting as support.
TD’ Sequential: R-2 < R1 on 3d | Daily R-7 | 12h R-7
Visible Range: Point of control over last 24h is $7,015 | POC over last 5 days is $7,551 with a low volume node between $7,000 and $7,325 | POC over last month is $7,451 | POC over last year is $8,258
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = -2.02% | 24h = -0.57% | 1w = -14.89% | 2w = -16.54% | 1m + +6.65%
Bollinger Bands: Testing bottom band on daily while the band starts to angle downward. Below MA on weekly. Testing MA on 3d for support.
Trendline: N/A
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: UP = $8,284 | DOWN = $6,068
On Balance Volume: Moving down faster than the price, indicates smart money getting out.
ADX: 1d - 1w are bearish w/o any trend present.
Chaikin Money Flow: Dumped from 0.2 to < 0.05 in the last week. In agreeance with OBV.
RSI (30 setting): 1d and 1w are < 50
Stoch: %K is finally crossing below %D on weekly. This is establishing a lower high. Daily is cooled off and back in oversold zone.
Summary: 1h Wyckoff distribution (w spring) and/or the bear flag are indicating that $6,800 should breakdown before we get a bounce to $7,250 - $7,500. Personally I am having a hard time believing that we will breakdown the major level of support after being oversold and still think we will get a bounce. The 12h reversal candles above the 128 MA would agree with me.
The 3d TD’ Sequential and the daily cloud are potentially disagreeing with me. The TD’ is providing an entry with a Red 2 below a Red 1. If we close a daily candle below the cloud then it would also be suggestive of an entry.
I would pass on the TD’ entry due to being on a daily Red 7. I would pass on the kumo breakdown due to the bullish TK' Cross.
If not in a position then I would wait patiently for a bounce and would be prepared to sell the shit out of it.
Thanks for reading!
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