BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
Fibonacci numbers (blue vertical lines) and ratios (purple) applied on time.

In case of failure, we break 450, and should expect 260 (last bubbles top)
If we keep climbing up and break top resistance expect rally up to 3000 - 4000.

Infact targets like 10k for the next bubble are unreasonable.
The next bubble will be more like a last breath of the bulls,
before a major correction to around 440 (current bottom level).
A major correction is needed to balance out the
bearish divergence of the last bubble (see weekly RSI etc.)
Only then we will find ourself in a more modest uptrend with
next bubble peaking around 18k at fib number 8 at beginning of 2017.
I really like this chart.
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Thanks grahvity :]
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Elegant but convincing. WIll keep an eye out.
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you call it last breath :) i call it , the beginning
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last bubble before change into a more modest uptrend as I said in the details :)
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It's a nice chart, but it is just unrealistic. It will take at least another 5 years to make it to 40k
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TheChasm TheChasm
or 20k rather
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A collapse of the USD is imminent and will be followed by cataclysmic events imo. This will fuel the further rise of btc.
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TheReasen MagnusTradingGroup
yep, maybe Bitcoin going to we the best money soon about all that problems in the dollar etc
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I'm still kind of undecided about bitcoin. After steadilly increasing regulation It might enable agencies to monitor and control money transfers even better than they are able to do so now. If a crypto currency becomes a world currency the elite will find a way to use it for their advantage.
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BenjaminNewton PRO MagnusTradingGroup
you can't rely on cataclysmic events unfortunately
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MoonTrader TheChasm
Who knows? The Winklevoss twins think it will happen sooner than anyone expects...
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Serious events have to happen first inorder for the market cap to increase that much though. It wont just happen byitself without any catalyst
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MoonTrader MagnusTradingGroup
What's a serious event? We've had so much good news and nothing has happened.
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adoption and integration in our everydays life etc.
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TheChasm MoonTrader
We need new investors. Merchant adoption and regulation only goes so far by itself. We need cash flow into the asset not just transactions across the bitcoin network.
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At one point the good news will just overweight all the fear and doubt of investors and people will start buying with no end in sight.
Bitcoin is just at the beginning of its S-Curve. It's typical for S curves that at the beginning people don't expect the fast growth phase and when it's in the middle of the S-Curve they expect the fast growth to stay forever while the growth will slow down.
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doesn't mean it will have a positive effect on price though. There are plenty of funds in existence already, none of them are popular. Winklevoss said they'd be selling off any excess coins, which could be an awful lot so it could actually have a negative effect on the market.
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MoonTrader BenjaminNewton
If they have an interest in the future of bitcoin, they won't deliberately sell enough to hurt the market.
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Wauw this looks so good!
Thanks for the chart :)
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It's unreasonable to assume that after approaching $4,000 that it will correct 90% to $400.
The last big correction was no more than 50-60%. If we break above $3000 I don't think we'd see 3 digit prices again
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Maddie jared.boice
Take a look @ 2011 :)
We want from 1 to 30 and back to 3,5 ;p
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Yes exactly 2011. 3 years ago when the volatility was greatest. Volatility has been decreasing and if that trend continues along with user adoption then 90% corrections are a fantasy IMO
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Maddie jared.boice
In my opinion the rally from 2011 was almost the same as the rally from may. This compares a lot. Also take a look @ the gold graph. Could be BTC is about to fail !
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You just compared a rally that went from $1 to $30 with a rally that went from roughly $100 to $1200. The first was a 30x increase and the second was 12x at best. You should be careful with such sophomoric mathematical errors especially right before surmising that bitcoin could fail. Otherwise readers might assume you're a paid government shill ;-)
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Woops you said the rally from may. What was that a 15x increase? Same conclusion! Take note of the diminishing volatility trend ;-)
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It's unreasonable to assume that after approaching $4,000 that it will correct 90% to $400.
The last big correction was no more than 50-60%. If we break above $3000 I don't think we'd see 3 digit prices again
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love the fib, most convincing bubble cycle yet :)
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jared.boice smellymoo
Except it's not convincing based on my above criticism. 90% correction? Really? When was the last time that happened? 3 years ago?

Listen, anything can happen. I understand that. But projections end to be based on historical trends and reality. And the reality is that
Corrections are getting smaller in percentage basis points.
This fib's correction projections are not based on reality
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MoonTrader jared.boice
Ok, maybe it won't retrace 90%. Maybe it will retrace 50% and just keep going up. All the same... :)
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jared.boice MoonTrader
Just be careful of deceptive chartists who say things like bitcoin might fail. They're out to get your bitcoins at every point in the cycle.

This chart is either deceptive or ignorant seeing how there is no basis that we'd see that massive of a correction when it peaks. It should cause you wonder about the whole chart altogether

I do admire your passion
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A major correction is due to the building bearish divergence between the bubbles. As I said I expect another little bubble on a strong bearish divergence and a move to correct the bearish divergence. I understand that a 88.6% correction is anything else than intuitive but hey there hasn't been anything intuitive about bitcoin price anyway. Our current rate of growth is just not sustainable and we will need to morph into a more modest uptrend. This won't happen through a smooth transition but rather a swift correction in my opinion. Furthermore I don't understand why you got the impression I'm trying to decept. I never said "bitcoin might fail" even if there is actually a chance for it to be replaced by another advanced technology and thus "fail"
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jared.boice MagnusTradingGroup
Projections that aren't intuitive are guesses at best and deceptive at worst. The trend is that of diminishing volatility. There is therefore no justification to project an 88% correction even if a fluke could cause that to happen. There's also no reason to suggest that this sort of growth is not sustainable. Bitcoin's market cap is approximately 7 billion...
USD is at least $70 Trillion depending on how you count
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MoonTrader jared.boice
Haha, thanks. I don't really consider myself that passionate, but meh. You're right, though. The whole chart is a bit questionable. Still looks nice, though. Would be great to catch that rise and then short on the way down...
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@jared.boice
There you go. Bitcoin retraced around 86% since the last top at 1100. What do you say now ?
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jared.boice MagnusTradingGroup
I say the downtrend has gone on WAY longer than most anticipated.
I definitely can say I was wrong on that estimation. But now I'm wondering if we get an even bigger upside due to this spring getting compressed so far and for so long. Either way, I still hold the same conviction about rumors that bitcoin is about to fail. On the contrary, we have season more venture capital and infrastructure progress than ever.
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you still don't get that this chart is bullish, do you ? :D
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jared.boice MagnusTradingGroup
Sorry but this chart views crappy on a mobile device. I can only re-read my previous posts to understand the context of this four month old topic. And I still am skeptical that it goes from $4,000 to $400, but this is bitcoin we are talking about and anything is possible. If venture capital continues pouring into the infrastructure then eventually it's going to pay off with exponential demand...and subsequently less volatility.
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jared.boice MagnusTradingGroup
Also this chart says we should be at like $1200 right now. So it's not as if this chart has been 100% accurate either ha
Either way, I welcome $3000-$4000 BTC whenever it decides to get there. I hope it comes sooner rather than later
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regarding your chart l would call myself a new millionaire ,feel good ))
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not true :(
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