ChrisD_Macro
Short

BTC Sell Signal - Demark Setup Sell Perfection

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Last week 7/24 BTCUSD generated a Demark 9 Setup Perfection Sell Signal.

The entry was triggered via a Sell Stop below the low of the 9 bar at 7690 with an initial stop at 9323

This aligned with hitting the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels from the May highs to June lows, as both of these lined up it gives a little more confidence in the short side playing out and one other note, the 52 week moving average sits at the 8200 level.

A good amount of headwinds to give BTC a reason to drop back down and test out some support levels and see if buyers are indeed interested in owning BTC here or was it just traders.

Contextually we are in a longer term bottoming process in BTC , I've written about it here
So far this bottoming process is playing out as expected, rather the opposite of late 2017 action and I expect it to continue this way.

Continuing the bottoming process we should pull back to test some support levels and see if buyers can be enticed to come back in, as well new investors from traditional markets.

Here's how we are playing this

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-Shorted with a sell stop at 7750 with an initial stop with a daily bar close above 9323 (the daily has to close to be valid).
-Looking for Fibonacci retracement levels from June lows to last weeks highs
38.2% = 7578
50% = 7296
61.8% = 7006 (primary)
78.6% = 6590 (secondary)

If those levels fail the 5755 June lows are the next target to hold which brings 4975 and 3000 back into the picture.

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All of these lower levels are still part of the bottoming process and valid unless we lose the bullish divergence on MACD .
Aug 03
Comment: 50% retracement hit overnight (US Session) at 7282 (7296 was the 50% mark).

If BTC can hold this Fibonacci bounce then wave 3 (the most exciting wave) should take us to $10,0905 at the 1.618 Fib extension.

Though I still think a move to the 61.8% price level at 7006 (or even 78.6 at 6590) is in the cards, I've lightened my short position and raising cash.
Aug 04
Comment: Right at 61.8% fibonacci support on BTC
6651 would be the next level but I'm expecting these areas to be more bottoms than mile markers on the road lower.
I'm more of the mindset to lighten shorts here vs piling in
Not in a net long state of mind just yet.
Aug 04
Comment: As per my trading plan, covering 1/2 position of short position here at this Fibonacci level.

Filled at 7065.7 (avg price)
Aug 04
Trade active: Updated chart with potential continued up move from here. (People are pretty salty on the interwebz at these levels anecdotally)

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ml8U2D...

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