After some time of painting in larger supports and resistances, it occurred to me that they look to be almost equidistant in the logarithmic chart, like a chess board pattern.
So I went back and tried to find other larger support and resistance lines which there are:
131.0, 209.0, 306.3, 470.5, 788.0, 1216.0, 1852.5, 2995.2, 4495.4, 5830.9, 8384.7, 11855.1, 19906.9
The percentage increase between these level are in order:
0.60, 0.47, 0.54, 0.67, 0.54, 0.52, 0.62, 0.50, 0.30, 0.44, 0.41, 0.68
and sorted by size:
30%, 41%, 44%, 47%, 50%, 52%, 54%, 54%, 60%, 62%, 67%, 68%
The average increase between subsequent levels and its standard deviation is (50 ± 10)%.
Next, I tried to find out the time ranges the price stayed in a certain range between two levels.
These are in order from oldest to newest and in days:
162, 121, 113, 302, 204, 205, 117, 111, 134, 156, 171
and sorted:
111, 113, 117, 121, 134, 156, 162, 171, 204, 205, 302
It might be argued, that the outlier of 302 days at the bottom in 2015 might actually be two 151 day time ranges right after each after trading in the same price range.
With that assumption the average and standard deviation for the time ranges is ( 150 ± 30 ) days.
With this analysis, the price action might be actually viewed as a kind of binary walk which every 6 months or so executes a larger +50% or -33% move.
Using this assumption, it seems highly likely that Bitcoin won't break the 4500$ mark right now and will stay in the 3k-4.5k range for at least another 3 months.
Other things to note:
So I went back and tried to find other larger support and resistance lines which there are:
131.0, 209.0, 306.3, 470.5, 788.0, 1216.0, 1852.5, 2995.2, 4495.4, 5830.9, 8384.7, 11855.1, 19906.9
The percentage increase between these level are in order:
0.60, 0.47, 0.54, 0.67, 0.54, 0.52, 0.62, 0.50, 0.30, 0.44, 0.41, 0.68
and sorted by size:
30%, 41%, 44%, 47%, 50%, 52%, 54%, 54%, 60%, 62%, 67%, 68%
The average increase between subsequent levels and its standard deviation is (50 ± 10)%.
Next, I tried to find out the time ranges the price stayed in a certain range between two levels.
These are in order from oldest to newest and in days:
162, 121, 113, 302, 204, 205, 117, 111, 134, 156, 171
and sorted:
111, 113, 117, 121, 134, 156, 162, 171, 204, 205, 302
It might be argued, that the outlier of 302 days at the bottom in 2015 might actually be two 151 day time ranges right after each after trading in the same price range.
With that assumption the average and standard deviation for the time ranges is ( 150 ± 30 ) days.
With this analysis, the price action might be actually viewed as a kind of binary walk which every 6 months or so executes a larger +50% or -33% move.
Using this assumption, it seems highly likely that Bitcoin won't break the 4500$ mark right now and will stay in the 3k-4.5k range for at least another 3 months.
Other things to note:
- This kind of "charting" might be highly arbitrary for some price ranges and time ranges
- Sometimes, like in October 2013, May 2017 and especially November 2017, the price skips multiple price ranges in one time-range, so selling after the average 50% increase might miss out many gains.
- It is eery how the two upwards triangles in the first and second half of 2016 have almost the same time range and percentage increase
- As Bitcoin trades 24/7, there are no real gaps. The drawn gaps are price-ranges which, on the daily chart, were moved over in one fast bull- or bear-run without any retraces "sufficient" retraces. This kind of classification is
also highly arbitrary.