Especially when you zoom out to the big picture weekly charts you can find so many divergences with the BTC price and the trend shown by some indicators. It's really troubling me if we can maintain the current altitude.
Regarding my own friends, I haven't been able to convince a single one of them to buy Bitcoin, although I praise it since December 2013 (this is when I bought at 800 US Dollar after knowing about Bitcoin's existence since early 2011, because I had no clue about chart analysis back then and thought 800 US Dollar is cheaper than 1200 US Dollar... ). Even the price increase in May, which I told them in April might happen, didn't change their minds. All of my friends want to buy and own exactly one Bitcoin, not a fraction of it. And for all of them 500-600 US Dollar is too much money to give it a quick try. They are all like waiting for the mega-rally until they think it's a safe investment and then they want to buy a lot. And if they would do mainstream research on mainstream websites they would tell me about this 51% attack risk. So even the people who weren't scared away by the MtGox stories are now afraid of investing.
If Litecoin and Dogecoin can fall down from the sky back to reality, why couldn't this happen to Bitcoin, too? Dogecoin was expected, but Litecoin falling down so much really worries me. I think we can see at least 550 US Dollar, maybe even 450 US Dollar again - if we can't hold 600-625 US Dollar.
Let's see what news the coming week brings. We need very positive big news in the middle of the summer to push us out of the growing downtrend risk.
In that chart, while volume is dying it is hard to compare apples to oranges when there are a few reasons why it can be lower today then while ago. 1. Being that the price is so much higher new investors don't buy nearly as much with about the same general amounts old ones did. 2. Many other exchanges now are bleeding away the volume from just one exchange. Back in the day it was basically Mt. Gox or LBTC. Now it is Finex, Stamp, Okcoin, Huobui, and others.
I don't also think we are not seeming to be able to go higher. I said something in Reddit that when the next bubble comes it may not be soon. I had suggested a slower more gradual "step up" and got shot down be a few. The past few weeks nothing has really changed. Bitcoin is the one thing that blasts quicker through cycles than you average stock so remaining in the same zone is reason enough to question. Someone argued with me that we may suddenly just burst up. True, but then again there are certain levels people are going to sell at regardless. If we went up today 3000 is unfeasible since many who bought and have held though the top will sell way before then. They'll be skeptical for a time after that.
Little tangent with Reddit stuff... back to your comments. I agree this round we are not seeing as many investors. Interest? Yes, many people are taking interest, but not the risk of owning any or very little.
The fun thing is I only really have about 8 months worth of true TA expertise. Before that I only halfway dabbled in it on the occasion. Basically only really got into gathering info, reading about this and that indicator in October. Really apparent in my old charts... or maybe not looking back on them myself. I am having a blast looking at my old charts. The memories...
Ok, that is a good point. Bitfinex recently was leading the volume, so that might explain a little bit the dying volume. But it's the same picture overall with every exchange that the BTC volume is dying on each one.