BTC.USD near term Support Resistance: Bitcoin $7450 still Key !

Update to my ongoing analysis of Bitcoin moves (see links below).

BTC got a strong bounce from $6500 and then $6850 (both plotted below).
Now it is reaching resistance as well as bull exhaustion zones to beware.
Liquidity will be thin for the Holiday weekend, so expect large swings.

$ 745x.xx has been key figure both on the way up and back down.
Below are several good supports but ideally we do not get there.
Beware that we may have already hit a temporary top at $76xx

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Part of my ongoing Bitcoin analysis, been hitting every important turn (click):
7650 Resistance Map <= Still in Play
6850 Bounce plot <= Prefect Retrace
5882 critical number <= Remember This
8.7k Top Call
21k possible target (still possible)
9k bounce call (perfect bounce)
12.4k Break
14k > 10k retrace
14k target call <=Perfect TP
10k target call <=6 wks ago
7.5k bounce call <=Perfect Entry
10k path laid out
3.1k bottom call (the EXACT bottom)




Of course, I have had total FAILS on some ideas too, not going to pretend.
But all of my plots show PRECISE entries, TIGHT stops, and EXACT targets.
Precision is the way of the Fib. Almost every turn happens at a Fib Line.

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Comment:

Just got our First Test of support zone in 7450 area, decent reflection this far

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Comment:

Pullback continues, and a new clue in hand.
Based on the action around two fib lines, we have a new red zone of interest, shown by textbox in this pic

so the Green 5.236 and the blue 8.4703 were both pinged exactly so now that is a resistance layer.
This is how 'lower highs' propagate, in that this new band will be remembered by traders on next visit, and decisions will be made again at that price range.

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Comment:

Also noteworthy are the reactions around this red 1.236

That tells me to have continued confidence in the Red fib series, and expect reactions at other lines of that fib.
So it is a matter of building confidence levels in a given fib series, and mentally assigning a "weight" to each fib series.

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Comment:

BTC still contained with the two immediate zones

Zoomed in, the New Zone from last update seems to have an effect still

Bulls currently trying to firm it up as a support.

Putting a Fib-Ray on the last push:

Blue Fig may be the impulse Wave that pushes through.
Some decent pings, but not perfect.
Will go with it for now, and see if prices notices it more or less as time elapses.
A "good fib" will actually get MORE accurate as price crawls around looking for the lines.

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Comment:

Continuing with Blue Fib ^^ above:
Looking at that fib in Isolation:

I like it better after seeing that many Pings.
A good trick to "isolating" something is to use the "Visibility" setting.
In this example I set all my other stuff to visibility of 2 minutes or more, while looking at the 1 minute chart.
Thus I can look at a single drawing within many.

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Comment:

Looks like we may have gotten the Stop Hunt on Longs

Zoomed in we see all of the fibs still holding Precisely.

Now the question is whether the red fib just above us will reflect the price or not?
Even though it has been criss crossed several times recently, it should still shows its presence.
Let see if it does hold or not, either way, it will be a clue to use.
If it causes a reaction, then I have more faith in the rest of the red fib lines.
If not, then we give more weight to other fibs.

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Comment:

Another closeup view and analysis, see text notes on chart

Mostly good, caught all turns except for one level.

Add in a Fib-Ray again to the drop

Now zooming out but leaving the new fib,

Looks like the blue 4.236 (new) lines up perfectly with the top bound of existing support zone.
so, if price comes down that far, we should see a very strong response, as that zone has just been "reinforced" with another fib layer.
If it does NOT create strong bounce then we change our bias to assuming strong bears or weak bulls....

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Comment:

Ping

on the underside of resistance zone.
Was pierced before, stopped exactly at the lower bound this time.
Looks like a Make or Break moment here, such exact reactions are often the start of a larger move.....

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Comment:

a Ping and a Pong

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Comment:

As expected, we have a significant pullback, initiated by the Exact Reaction at resistance zone

Zoomed in with Fib of the pullback

There have been two very clean Pings on that fib.
Bulls needs to take advantage of this second Ping.
2.618 extension is always strong (from either direction) so bulls want to stay North of it.

Zooming back out with above Red fib in place

If the 2.618 is lost, we see the 3.618 and 4.236 lining up exactly with previous support zones.
So bulls have a few back stops lined up that should be pretty strong.
But ideally we do NOT get below $ 7450 which is still the primary battle line.

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Comment:

Decent Ping on the 7450 zone

Bulls really need to run with this right here and right now.

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Comment:

Here we are at what "should be strong support"

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Comment:

So we had a massive spike up today,

perhaps short squeeze, perhaps risk-on mood, perhaps manipulation.
But whatever the cause, we are back above 7450 and holding for now.
Bulls need to count this as a blessing, and do they best to hold 7450 again.

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Comment:

There was once a GREEN Fib, joyous and light

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Then came this mean old RED fib, angry and heavy

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They were just trying to meet in the middle

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And their story shalt forever be told here in TV land